PitchMath
Championship · 2025Deepdale

Preston North End 2–1 Swansea City · Championship

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Preston North End won 2–1.

Shots
418
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
0.710.69
Possession
33%67%

Full time

What the match recorded

Preston North End beat Swansea City 2–1. Recorded in this match (Preston North End – Swansea City): shots 4–18, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 0.71–0.69, possession 33%–67%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Swansea City's recent record differs from the season

weak

Swansea City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1 goal/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Preston North End have a visible home split

moderate

Preston North End's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.14 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.14 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Swansea City have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.2%PossessionPreston North End · Swansea City● 55.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricPreston North EndSwansea CityBaseline
Possession44.2%55.2%49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots4 shots18 shotsPreston North End 4 shots, Swansea City 18 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsPreston North End 3 shots, Swansea City 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.71 xG0.69 xGPreston North End 0.71 xG, Swansea City 0.69 xG
  • Possession33%67%Preston North End 33%, Swansea City 67%
  • Corners2 corners8 cornersPreston North End 2 corners, Swansea City 8 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls5 foulsPreston North End 12 fouls, Swansea City 5 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ethan Galbraith · Swansea City · 15′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEthan Galbraith · Swansea City · 33′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMelker Widell · Swansea City · 49′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRonald · Swansea City · 71′ · 0.01 xG · on targetRonald · Swansea City · 73′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedThierry Small · Preston North End · 8′ · 0.02 xG · goalJosh Key · Swansea City · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMelker Widell · Swansea City · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCameron Burgess · Swansea City · 51′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJi-sung Eom · Swansea City · 80′ · 0.02 xG · goalCameron Burgess · Swansea City · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedŽan Vipotnik · Swansea City · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdam Idah · Swansea City · 49′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLiam Cullen · Swansea City · 52′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLiam Cullen · Swansea City · 37′ · 0.06 xG · on targetCameron Burgess · Swansea City · 73′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Devine · Preston North End · 39′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLiam Cullen · Swansea City · 28′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAdam Idah · Swansea City · 35′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAdam Idah · Swansea City · 70′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMilutin Osmajić · Preston North End · 90′ · 0.25 xG · on targetMilutin Osmajić · Preston North End · 49′ · 0.40 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Preston North End: 4 shots, 3 on target, 0.74 xG. Swansea City: 18 shots, 5 on target, 0.68 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Thierry Small · Preston North End · 8′Milutin Osmajić · Preston North End · 49′Ji-sung Eom · Swansea City · 80′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Preston North End 0.74 xG · Swansea City 0.68 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Preston North End
1Draws
3Swansea City
Preston North End — Swansea City · Championship0–0
Swansea City — Preston North End · Championship3–0
Swansea City — Preston North End · Championship2–1
Preston North End — Swansea City · Championship2–1
Swansea City — Preston North End · Championship4–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Preston North End favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Swansea City in 2 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Preston North End14 matchesSwansea City14 matches
1.36 goals/match ▲Goals scored14/141 goal/match
0.93 goals/match ▲Goals allowed14/141.07 goals/match
1.27 xG/match ▲Expected goals14/140.84 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots13/1310.7 shots/match
3.23 shots/matchShots on target13/133.31 shots/match
44.2%Possession13/13● 55.2%
3.23 corners/matchCorners13/13● 4.46 corners/match
9.92 fouls/matchFouls13/1210.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 5 Nov 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPreston North EndSwansea City
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headPreston North End — Swansea City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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