Championship · 2025Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeThe HawthornsFull-time recap
32Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWest Bromwich AlbionSwansea City
Shots26 shots/match3 shots/match
Shots on target10 shots/match2 shots/match
Expected goals1.73 xG/match0.21 xG/match
Possession65%35%
Corners7 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Alex Mowatt · West Bromwich Albion · 89′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEthan Galbraith · Swansea City · 12′ · 0.02 xG · goalChris Mepham · West Bromwich Albion · 31′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSamuel Iling Junior · West Bromwich Albion · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBen Cabango · Swansea City · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Gilchrist · West Bromwich Albion · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIsaac Price · West Bromwich Albion · 22′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNathaniel Phillips · West Bromwich Albion · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMikey Johnston · West Bromwich Albion · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKarlan Grant · West Bromwich Albion · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAune Selland Heggebø · West Bromwich Albion · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlex Mowatt · West Bromwich Albion · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAune Selland Heggebø · West Bromwich Albion · 52′ · 0.04 xG · goalCallum Styles · West Bromwich Albion · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMikey Johnston · West Bromwich Albion · 82′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAlex Mowatt · West Bromwich Albion · 22′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMikey Johnston · West Bromwich Albion · 80′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMikey Johnston · West Bromwich Albion · 28′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAune Selland Heggebø · West Bromwich Albion · 36′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAune Selland Heggebø · West Bromwich Albion · 64′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKrystian Bielik · West Bromwich Albion · 83′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAune Selland Heggebø · West Bromwich Albion · 83′ · 0.07 xG · on targetŽan Vipotnik · Swansea City · 1′ · 0.09 xG · goalSamuel Iling Junior · West Bromwich Albion · 15′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAune Selland Heggebø · West Bromwich Albion · 47′ · 0.10 xG · goalAlex Mowatt · West Bromwich Albion · 60′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedAune Selland Heggebø · West Bromwich Albion · 70′ · 0.16 xG · on targetJayson Molumby · West Bromwich Albion · 85′ · 0.22 xG · goalJosh Maja · West Bromwich Albion · 90′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

West Bromwich Albion: 26 shots, 10 on target, 1.73 xG. Swansea City: 3 shots, 2 on target, 0.13 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Aune Selland Heggebø · West Bromwich Albion · 47′Aune Selland Heggebø · West Bromwich Albion · 52′Jayson Molumby · West Bromwich Albion · 85′Žan Vipotnik · Swansea City · 1′Ethan Galbraith · Swansea City · 12′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: West Bromwich Albion 1.73 xG · Swansea City 0.13 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: West Bromwich Albion's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for West Bromwich Albion, Swansea City. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

West Bromwich Albion's recent record differs from the season

moderate

West Bromwich Albion's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/matchGoals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.11 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for West Bromwich Albion, Swansea City.

2.79 daysRest daysWest Bromwich Albion · Swansea City3.8 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricWest Bromwich AlbionSwansea CityBaseline
Rest days2.79 days3.8 days
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

West Bromwich Albion have a visible home split

moderate

West Bromwich Albion's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.6 shots/matchShotsHome only · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.6 shots/match13.7 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

West Bromwich Albion favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Swansea City in 0 · 4 too close

1.11 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/181 goals/match
1.22 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/181.5 goals/match
1.13 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 18/180.77 xG/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 18/181.27 xG/match
13.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/1710.4 shots/match
11.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/1712.9 shots/match
4.06 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/173.41 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/174.71 shots/match
52.4%Possessionseason · 18/1755.1%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/174.29 corners/match
3.83 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/174.53 corners/match
Cardsseason · 0/0
9.67 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1610.4 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1817%
72%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1872%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

West Bromwich Albion60.4
Swansea City79.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 94%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

West Bromwich Albion59
Swansea City11.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

West Bromwich Albion64.6
Swansea City25.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

West Bromwich Albion64.6
Swansea City2.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 94%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

West Bromwich Albion10.4
Swansea City31.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 44%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

West Bromwich Albion39.6
Swansea City22.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 94%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

West Bromwich Albion49
Swansea City18.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 93%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/51 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/52.8 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals5/50.58 xG/match
17 shots/matchShots5/511.2 shots/match
5.2 shots/matchShots on target5/54 shots/match
50.4%Possession5/557.4%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
Cards0/0
9 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/102 goals/match
1.09 xG/matchExpected goals10/100.65 xG/match
14.3 shots/matchShots10/910.6 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/93.67 shots/match
53%Possession10/953.9%
5.5 corners/matchCorners10/94.11 corners/match
Cards0/0
9.6 fouls/matchFouls10/89.88 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored18/181 goals/match
1.22 goals/matchGoals allowed18/181.5 goals/match
1.13 xG/matchExpected goals18/180.77 xG/match
13.7 shots/matchShots18/1710.4 shots/match
4.06 shots/matchShots on target18/173.41 shots/match
52.4%Possession18/1755.1%
5 corners/matchCorners18/174.29 corners/match
Cards0/0
9.67 fouls/matchFouls18/1610.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored9/90.89 goals/match
0.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/91.33 goals/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goals9/90.67 xG/match
16.6 shots/matchShots9/910.1 shots/match
5.44 shots/matchShots on target9/93.33 shots/match
55.2%Possession9/952.1%
6.22 corners/matchCorners9/94.33 corners/match
Cards0/0
10.6 fouls/matchFouls9/810.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.8 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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