PitchMath
Championship · 2025Vicarage Road

Watford 3–2 Norwich City · Championship

Watford

DDWDL
3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Watford won 3–2.

Shots
1315
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
1.281.88
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Watford beat Norwich City 3–2. Recorded in this match (Watford – Norwich City): shots 13–15, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 1.28–1.88, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Norwich City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Norwich City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.11 goals/match1.32 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Watford, Norwich City.

4.69 days ▲Rest daysWatford · Norwich City6.9 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricWatfordNorwich CityBaseline
Rest days4.69 days6.9 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Watford have a visible home split

moderate

Watford's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.9 shots/match14.1 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots15 shotsWatford 13 shots, Norwich City 15 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsWatford 6 shots, Norwich City 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.28 xG1.88 xGWatford 1.28 xG, Norwich City 1.88 xG
  • Possession54%46%Watford 54%, Norwich City 46%
  • Corners6 corners5 cornersWatford 6 corners, Norwich City 5 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls5 foulsWatford 12 fouls, Norwich City 5 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Matthew Pollock · Watford · 33′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPelle Mattsson · Norwich City · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOthmane Maamma · Watford · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEdo Kayembe · Watford · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarc Bola · Watford · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPelle Mattsson · Norwich City · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJacob Wright · Norwich City · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJacob Wright · Norwich City · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJovon Makama · Norwich City · 87′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEmiliano Marcondes · Norwich City · 1′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedForson Amankwah · Norwich City · 7′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedForson Amankwah · Norwich City · 21′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTom Ince · Watford · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOthmane Maamma · Watford · 65′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJosh Sargent · Norwich City · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetVivaldo · Watford · 81′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJacob Wright · Norwich City · 73′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMatthew Pollock · Watford · 17′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLuca Kjerrumgaard · Watford · 33′ · 0.11 xG · goalLuca Kjerrumgaard · Watford · 61′ · 0.11 xG · goalEmiliano Marcondes · Norwich City · 21′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Doumbia · Watford · 65′ · 0.16 xG · on targetJosh Sargent · Norwich City · 11′ · 0.18 xG · goalJosh Sargent · Norwich City · 87′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedTom Ince · Watford · 78′ · 0.23 xG · goalEdo Kayembe · Watford · 65′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedJovon Makama · Norwich City · 69′ · 0.52 xG · off target or blockedOscar Schwartau · Norwich City · 45′ · 0.62 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Watford: 13 shots, 6 on target, 1.27 xG. Norwich City: 15 shots, 4 on target, 1.99 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Luca Kjerrumgaard · Watford · 33′Luca Kjerrumgaard · Watford · 61′Tom Ince · Watford · 78′Josh Sargent · Norwich City · 11′Oscar Schwartau · Norwich City · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Watford 1.27 xG · Norwich City 1.99 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Watford
0Draws
3Norwich City
Watford — Norwich City · Championship0–1
Norwich City — Watford · Championship4–1
Norwich City — Watford · Championship4–2
Watford — Norwich City · Championship3–2
Norwich City — Watford · Championship0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Watford favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Norwich City in 0 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Watford19 matchesNorwich City19 matches
1.42 goals/match ▲Goals scored19/191.11 goals/match
1.32 goals/match ▲Goals allowed19/191.68 goals/match
1.35 xG/matchExpected goals19/191.33 xG/match
14.1 shots/match ▲Shots19/1812.3 shots/match
4.79 shots/match ▲Shots on target19/183.89 shots/match
51.8% ●Possession19/1851.6%
4.37 corners/matchCorners19/18● 4.94 corners/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls18/189 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsWatfordNorwich City
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headWatford — Norwich City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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