PitchMath
Championship · 2025Deepdale

Preston North End 0–1 Derby County · Championship

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Derby County won 0–1.

Shots
1318
Shots on target
24
Expected goals
0.991.76
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

Derby County beat Preston North End 1–0. Recorded in this match (Preston North End – Derby County): shots 13–18, shots on target 2–4, expected goals 0.99–1.76, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Derby County's recent record differs from the season

weak

Derby County's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.33 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots18 shotsPreston North End 13 shots, Derby County 18 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots4 shotsPreston North End 2 shots, Derby County 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.99 xG1.76 xGPreston North End 0.99 xG, Derby County 1.76 xG
  • Possession51%49%Preston North End 51%, Derby County 49%
  • Corners5 corners10 cornersPreston North End 5 corners, Derby County 10 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls12 foulsPreston North End 7 fouls, Derby County 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Alfie Devine · Preston North End · 33′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRhian Brewster · Derby County · 36′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBen Brereton Díaz · Derby County · 32′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Devine · Preston North End · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJordan Storey · Preston North End · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSondre Langås · Derby County · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSondre Langås · Derby County · 5′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMatt Clarke · Derby County · 23′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBen Brereton Díaz · Derby County · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Agyemang · Derby County · 54′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBobby Clark · Derby County · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBen Brereton Díaz · Derby County · 81′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Agyemang · Derby County · 52′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBrad Potts · Preston North End · 64′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBen Whiteman · Preston North End · 64′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBobby Clark · Derby County · 75′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBen Brereton Díaz · Derby County · 75′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Agyemang · Derby County · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMilutin Osmajić · Preston North End · 28′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Devine · Preston North End · 88′ · 0.07 xG · on targetJordan Storey · Preston North End · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBrad Potts · Preston North End · 36′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBen Brereton Díaz · Derby County · 54′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Devine · Preston North End · 72′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Agyemang · Derby County · 82′ · 0.12 xG · goalAli McCann · Preston North End · 18′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedSondre Langås · Derby County · 39′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Devine · Preston North End · 83′ · 0.26 xG · on targetRhian Brewster · Derby County · 50′ · 0.45 xG · on targetPatrick Agyemang · Derby County · 47′ · 0.58 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Preston North End: 13 shots, 2 on target, 1.00 xG. Derby County: 18 shots, 4 on target, 1.84 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Patrick Agyemang · Derby County · 82′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Preston North End 1.00 xG · Derby County 1.84 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Preston North End
2Draws
2Derby County
Derby County — Preston North End · Championship0–1
Derby County — Preston North End · Championship2–0
Preston North End — Derby County · Championship1–1
Derby County — Preston North End · Championship1–0
Preston North End — Derby County · Championship0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Preston North End favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Derby County in 3 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Preston North End27 matchesDerby County27 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored27/271.33 goals/match
0.96 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/271.3 goals/match
1.15 xG/match ▲Expected goals27/271.06 xG/match
11 shots/match ▲Shots26/269.88 shots/match
3.65 shots/match ▲Shots on target26/263.27 shots/match
44.8% ●Possession26/2642.5%
4.08 corners/matchCorners26/26● 5.31 corners/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls26/2511.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPreston North EndDerby County
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headPreston North End — Derby County
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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