PitchMath
Championship · 2025Tue, 20 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeRacecourse GroundFull-time recap

Wrexham

WWWWL
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWrexhamLeicester City
Shots16 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.01 xG/match▲0.39 xG/match
Possession48%52%
Corners3 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Max Cleworth · Wrexham · 54′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedMax Cleworth · Wrexham · 32′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLiberato Cacace · Wrexham · 49′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBobby De Cordova-Reid · Leicester City · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatty James · Wrexham · 21′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRyan Longman · Wrexham · 47′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedStephy Mavididi · Leicester City · 54′ · 0.02 xG · on targetOliver Rathbone · Wrexham · 54′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKieffer Moore · Wrexham · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJordan Ayew · Leicester City · 26′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBen Sheaf · Wrexham · 48′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOliver Rathbone · Wrexham · 3′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLewis O'Brien · Wrexham · 24′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMax Cleworth · Wrexham · 44′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBen Sheaf · Wrexham · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKieffer Moore · Wrexham · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMax Cleworth · Wrexham · 73′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJannik Vestergaard · Leicester City · 90′ · 0.12 xG · goalBobby De Cordova-Reid · Leicester City · 42′ · 0.20 xG · on targetKieffer Moore · Wrexham · 90′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedLewis O'Brien · Wrexham · 63′ · 0.38 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Wrexham: 16 shots, 3 on target, 1.01 xG. Leicester City: 5 shots, 4 on target, 0.39 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Lewis O'Brien · Wrexham · 63′Jannik Vestergaard · Leicester City · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Wrexham 1.01 xG · Leicester City 0.39 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Wrexham's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Wrexham, Leicester City. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Wrexham have a visible home split

strong

Wrexham's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Wrexham, Leicester City.

3.21 days▲Rest daysWrexham · Leicester City3.31 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricWrexhamLeicester CityBaseline
Rest days3.21 days3.31 days—
Matches last 14 days1 matches1 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Leicester City's recent record differs from the season

weak

Leicester City's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8.8 shots/match11.2 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Wrexham
1Draws
0Leicester City
Leicester City — Wrexham · Championship1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Wrexham favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Leicester City in 1 · 10 too close

1.43 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 28/281.39 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 28/281.46 goals/match
1.24 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 28/281.07 xG/match
1.41 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 28/281.45 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/2711.2 shots/match
14.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/27▲13.3 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/273.74 shots/match
4.59 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/274.41 shots/match
46.6%Possessionseason · 27/2751.7%
4.41 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/274.67 corners/match
5.63 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/275.52 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
9.46 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2711.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/2811%
86%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2886%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Wrexham31.2
Leicester City68.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Wrexham42.4
Leicester City38.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Wrexham28.5
Leicester City22.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Wrexham31.2
Leicester City10.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Wrexham8.3
Leicester City72.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 46%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Wrexham14.6
Leicester City35.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Wrexham18.2
Leicester City38.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
1.21 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.7 xG/match
13 shots/match▲Shots5/58.8 shots/match
3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
49%Possession5/547.4%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.7 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
1.26 xG/match▲Expected goals10/100.89 xG/match
12.1 shots/match▲Shots10/108.9 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/103.3 shots/match
48.5%Possession10/1045.8%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/103.3 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches
1.43 goals/matchGoals scored28/281.39 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed28/281.46 goals/match
1.24 xG/match▲Expected goals28/281.07 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots27/2711.2 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target27/273.74 shots/match
46.6%Possession27/2751.7%
4.41 corners/matchCorners27/274.67 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.46 fouls/matchFouls26/2711.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches
1.73 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.33 goals/match
1.47 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.73 goals/match
1.55 xG/match▲Expected goals15/151.01 xG/match
14.9 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.1 shots/match
4.71 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.64 shots/match
52.1%Possession14/1449.6%
5.43 corners/matchCorners14/143.57 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.71 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.31 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 21 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWrexhamLeicester City
CompetitionChampionship
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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