Championship · 2025Fri, 23 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timePride Park StadiumFull-time recap
11Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricDerby CountyWest Bromwich Albion
Shots5 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots on target1 shots/match4 shots/match
Expected goals0.29 xG/match0.97 xG/match
Possession58%42%
Corners1 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Jayson Molumby · West Bromwich Albion · 9′ · 0.01 xG · on targetPatrick Agyemang · Derby County · 44′ · 0.02 xG · goalOusmane Diakité · West Bromwich Albion · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGeorge Campbell · West Bromwich Albion · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAune Selland Heggebø · West Bromwich Albion · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCallum Styles · West Bromwich Albion · 52′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSamuel Iling Junior · West Bromwich Albion · 14′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBen Brereton Díaz · Derby County · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCorey Blackett-Taylor · Derby County · 71′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Iling Junior · West Bromwich Albion · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIsaac Price · West Bromwich Albion · 56′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Iling Junior · West Bromwich Albion · 65′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Diakité · West Bromwich Albion · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBen Brereton Díaz · Derby County · 68′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGeorge Campbell · West Bromwich Albion · 84′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCallum Elder · Derby County · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJosh Maja · West Bromwich Albion · 90′ · 0.24 xG · on targetChris Mepham · West Bromwich Albion · 90′ · 0.26 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Derby County: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.29 xG. West Bromwich Albion: 13 shots, 4 on target, 0.98 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Patrick Agyemang · Derby County · 44′Chris Mepham · West Bromwich Albion · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Derby County 0.29 xG · West Bromwich Albion 0.98 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Derby County, West Bromwich Albion. A second useful context is: West Bromwich Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Derby County, West Bromwich Albion.

3.01 daysRest daysDerby County · West Bromwich Albion3.01 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricDerby CountyWest Bromwich AlbionBaseline
Rest days3.01 days3.01 days
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

West Bromwich Albion's recent record differs from the season

moderate

West Bromwich Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/matchGoals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.1 goals/match1.34 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Derby County show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Derby County's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.89 shots/matchShotsDerby County · West Bromwich Albion13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricDerby CountyWest Bromwich AlbionBaseline
Shots9.89 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against12.4 shots/match10.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Derby County
0Draws
0West Bromwich Albion
West Bromwich AlbionDerby County · Championship01

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Derby County favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · West Bromwich Albion in 7 · 3 too close

1.34 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/291.1 goals/match
1.28 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 29/291.52 goals/match
1.05 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 29/291.23 xG/match
1.23 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 29/291.04 xG/match
9.89 shots/matchShotsseason · 28/2913.8 shots/match
12.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 28/2910.7 shots/match
3.25 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 28/294.34 shots/match
4.14 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/293.45 shots/match
42.9%Possessionseason · 28/2951.3%
4.96 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/295.52 corners/match
5.46 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 28/293.69 corners/match
Cardsseason · 0/0
12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2910.2 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/2917%
93%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/2972%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Derby County6.2
West Bromwich Albion56.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Derby County21.5
West Bromwich Albion60.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Derby County46.5
West Bromwich Albion59
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Derby County27.1
West Bromwich Albion77.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Derby County89.6
West Bromwich Albion31.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 47%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Derby County47.9
West Bromwich Albion72.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Derby County37.5
West Bromwich Albion65.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/50.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.1 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots5/513.2 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/55.4 shots/match
46%Possession5/546.2%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
Cards0/0
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.1 goals/match
0.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
1.14 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.38 xG/match
11.2 shots/matchShots10/1014.1 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target10/104.8 shots/match
45.8%Possession10/1049.1%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/106.7 corners/match
Cards0/0
11 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 29 matches
1.34 goals/matchGoals scored29/291.1 goals/match
1.28 goals/matchGoals allowed29/291.52 goals/match
1.05 xG/matchExpected goals29/291.23 xG/match
9.89 shots/matchShots28/2913.8 shots/match
3.25 shots/matchShots on target28/294.34 shots/match
42.9%Possession28/2951.3%
4.96 corners/matchCorners28/295.52 corners/match
Cards0/0
12 fouls/matchFouls27/2910.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored15/150.93 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.67 goals/match
1.05 xG/matchExpected goals15/151.1 xG/match
10.7 shots/matchShots14/1512.2 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target14/153.73 shots/match
48.2%Possession14/1549.2%
5.79 corners/matchCorners14/154.27 corners/match
Cards0/0
11.2 fouls/matchFouls14/159.93 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.01 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.01 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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