PitchMath
Championship · 2025The Den

Millwall 3–0 Birmingham City · Championship

3–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Millwall won 3–0.

Shots
115
Shots on target
52
Expected goals
1.210.12
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

Millwall beat Birmingham City 3–0. Recorded in this match (Millwall – Birmingham City): shots 11–5, shots on target 5–2, expected goals 1.21–0.12, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Millwall's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Millwall's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.32 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.32 goals/match1.32 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Birmingham City have a visible away split

strong

Birmingham City's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match14.2 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots5 shotsMillwall 11 shots, Birmingham City 5 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots2 shotsMillwall 5 shots, Birmingham City 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.21 xG0.12 xGMillwall 1.21 xG, Birmingham City 0.12 xG
  • Possession49%51%Millwall 49%, Birmingham City 51%
  • Corners7 corners5 cornersMillwall 7 corners, Birmingham City 5 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls8 foulsMillwall 14 fouls, Birmingham City 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Femi Azeez · Millwall · 41′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCasper De Norre · Millwall · 83′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJhon Solís · Birmingham City · 15′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIbrahim Osman · Birmingham City · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFemi Azeez · Millwall · 25′ · 0.02 xG · goalAugust Priske · Birmingham City · 32′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJhon Solís · Birmingham City · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMacaulay Langstaff · Millwall · 82′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFemi Azeez · Millwall · 31′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 23′ · 0.04 xG · on targetCamiel Neghli · Millwall · 72′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMihailo Ivanović · Millwall · 70′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJosh Coburn · Millwall · 16′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedCamiel Neghli · Millwall · 90′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedTristan Crama · Millwall · 31′ · 0.35 xG · goalJake Cooper · Millwall · 49′ · 0.39 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Millwall: 11 shots, 5 on target, 1.21 xG. Birmingham City: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.12 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Femi Azeez · Millwall · 25′Tristan Crama · Millwall · 31′Jake Cooper · Millwall · 49′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Millwall 1.21 xG · Birmingham City 0.12 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Millwall
2Draws
2Birmingham City
Birmingham City — Millwall · Championship4–0
Millwall — Birmingham City · Championship1–0
Birmingham City — Millwall · Championship1–1
Millwall — Birmingham City · Championship0–1
Birmingham City — Millwall · Championship0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Millwall favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Birmingham City in 6 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Millwall34 matchesBirmingham City34 matches
1.32 goals/matchGoals scored34/341.32 goals/match
1.18 goals/match ▲Goals allowed34/341.26 goals/match
1.29 xG/matchExpected goals34/34▲ 1.46 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots33/33▲ 14.2 shots/match
4.12 shots/match ▲Shots on target33/333.91 shots/match
47.1%Possession33/33● 54.3%
5.52 corners/matchCorners33/33● 5.79 corners/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls32/3311.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 25 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMillwallBirmingham City
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headMillwall — Birmingham City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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