PitchMath
Championship · 2025Deepdale

Preston North End 0–2 Millwall · Championship

0–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Millwall won 0–2.

Shots
616
Shots on target
24
Expected goals
0.431.66
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

Millwall beat Preston North End 2–0. Recorded in this match (Preston North End – Millwall): shots 6–16, shots on target 2–4, expected goals 0.43–1.66, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Millwall's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Millwall's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.34 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.34 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Preston North End, Millwall.

3.8 days ▲Rest daysPreston North End · Millwall2.8 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricPreston North EndMillwallBaseline
Rest days3.8 days2.8 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots16 shotsPreston North End 6 shots, Millwall 16 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots4 shotsPreston North End 2 shots, Millwall 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.43 xG1.66 xGPreston North End 0.43 xG, Millwall 1.66 xG
  • Possession57%43%Preston North End 57%, Millwall 43%
  • Corners2 corners6 cornersPreston North End 2 corners, Millwall 6 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls16 foulsPreston North End 10 fouls, Millwall 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Camiel Neghli · Millwall · 75′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAndrew Hughes · Preston North End · 2′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRyan Leonard · Millwall · 29′ · 0.02 xG · goalJosh Coburn · Millwall · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCamiel Neghli · Millwall · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFemi Azeez · Millwall · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBrad Potts · Preston North End · 14′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFemi Azeez · Millwall · 56′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Jebbison · Preston North End · 22′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDerek Mazou-Sacko · Millwall · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFemi Azeez · Millwall · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJosh Coburn · Millwall · 20′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMilutin Osmajić · Preston North End · 72′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJosh Coburn · Millwall · 77′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBilly Mitchell · Millwall · 34′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTristan Crama · Millwall · 20′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedCamiel Neghli · Millwall · 39′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedCallum Lang · Preston North End · 69′ · 0.12 xG · on targetAli McCann · Preston North End · 39′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJake Cooper · Millwall · 45′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedFemi Azeez · Millwall · 83′ · 0.36 xG · on targetLuke Cundle · Millwall · 90′ · 0.50 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Preston North End: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.42 xG. Millwall: 16 shots, 4 on target, 1.67 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ryan Leonard · Millwall · 29′Luke Cundle · Millwall · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Preston North End 0.42 xG · Millwall 1.67 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Preston North End
4Draws
1Millwall
Millwall — Preston North End · Championship1–1
Preston North End — Millwall · Championship1–1
Millwall — Preston North End · Championship3–1
Millwall — Preston North End · Championship1–1
Preston North End — Millwall · Championship1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Preston North End favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Millwall in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Preston North End35 matchesMillwall35 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored35/35▲ 1.34 goals/match
1.14 goals/matchGoals allowed35/351.14 goals/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goals35/35▲ 1.3 xG/match
10.5 shots/matchShots34/34▲ 12.7 shots/match
3.47 shots/matchShots on target34/34▲ 4.12 shots/match
44.9%Possession34/34● 47%
4.18 corners/matchCorners34/34● 5.53 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls34/3313.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples35 / 35home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPreston North EndMillwall
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headPreston North End — Millwall
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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