PitchMath
Championship · 2025Portman Road Stadium

Ipswich Town 2–1 Birmingham City · Championship

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Ipswich Town won 2–1.

Shots
119
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
1.780.41
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Ipswich Town beat Birmingham City 2–1. Recorded in this match (Ipswich Town – Birmingham City): shots 11–9, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 1.78–0.41, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Birmingham City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Birmingham City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.2 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Birmingham City.

16.1 days ▲Rest daysIpswich Town · Birmingham City3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricIpswich TownBirmingham CityBaseline
Rest days16.1 days3 days—
Matches last 14 days0 matches1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Birmingham City have a visible away split

strong

Birmingham City's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.75 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.75 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots9 shotsIpswich Town 11 shots, Birmingham City 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsIpswich Town 5 shots, Birmingham City 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.78 xG0.41 xGIpswich Town 1.78 xG, Birmingham City 0.41 xG
  • Possession54%46%Ipswich Town 54%, Birmingham City 46%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersIpswich Town 6 corners, Birmingham City 4 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls19 foulsIpswich Town 11 fouls, Birmingham City 19 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham City · 49′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJhon Solís · Birmingham City · 61′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Osman · Birmingham City · 85′ · 0.02 xG · on targetEthan Laird · Birmingham City · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGeorge Hirst · Ipswich Town · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAnis Mehmeti · Ipswich Town · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGeorge Hirst · Ipswich Town · 62′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDara O'Shea · Ipswich Town · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKasey McAteer · Ipswich Town · 1′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarcelino Núñez · Ipswich Town · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 73′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarcelino Núñez · Ipswich Town · 23′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Vicente · Birmingham City · 32′ · 0.09 xG · goalEthan Laird · Birmingham City · 85′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Osman · Birmingham City · 78′ · 0.10 xG · on targetKasey McAteer · Ipswich Town · 50′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedBen Johnson · Ipswich Town · 41′ · 0.28 xG · goalKasey McAteer · Ipswich Town · 32′ · 0.44 xG · on targetKasey McAteer · Ipswich Town · 45′ · 0.69 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Ipswich Town: 11 shots, 5 on target, 1.82 xG. Birmingham City: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.41 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ben Johnson · Ipswich Town · 41′Kasey McAteer · Ipswich Town · 45′Carlos Vicente · Birmingham City · 32′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Ipswich Town 1.82 xG · Birmingham City 0.41 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Ipswich Town
2Draws
0Birmingham City
Birmingham City — Ipswich Town · Championship1–1
Ipswich Town — Birmingham City · Championship3–1
Birmingham City — Ipswich Town · Championship2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Ipswich Town favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Birmingham City in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Ipswich Town39 matchesBirmingham City41 matches
1.77 goals/match ▲Goals scored39/411.2 goals/match
1.03 goals/match ▲Goals allowed39/411.27 goals/match
1.63 xG/match ▲Expected goals39/411.34 xG/match
14.9 shots/match ▲Shots38/4013.8 shots/match
5.08 shots/match ▲Shots on target38/403.98 shots/match
56.5% ●Possession38/4054.8%
5.5 corners/matchCorners38/40● 5.8 corners/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls38/4011.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples39 / 41home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 6 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsIpswich TownBirmingham City
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headIpswich Town — Birmingham City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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