PitchMath
Championship · 2025St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Birmingham City 2–1 Preston North End · Championship

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Birmingham City won 2–1.

Shots
1816
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
1.952.37
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Birmingham City beat Preston North End 2–1. Recorded in this match (Birmingham City – Preston North End): shots 18–16, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 1.95–2.37, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Birmingham City have a visible home split

strong

Birmingham City's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.6 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.6 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Birmingham City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Birmingham City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.8 shots/match ▲ShotsBirmingham City · Preston North End10.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBirmingham CityPreston North EndBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match10.7 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against10.6 shots/match14.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Birmingham City have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.5% ●PossessionBirmingham City · Preston North End45.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBirmingham CityPreston North EndBaseline
Possession54.5%45.6%50.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots16 shotsBirmingham City 18 shots, Preston North End 16 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsBirmingham City 5 shots, Preston North End 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.95 xG2.37 xGBirmingham City 1.95 xG, Preston North End 2.37 xG
  • Possession50%50%Birmingham City 50%, Preston North End 50%
  • Corners3 corners3 cornersBirmingham City 3 corners, Preston North End 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls9 foulsBirmingham City 11 fouls, Preston North End 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Seung Ho Paik · Birmingham City · 42′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 45′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLiam Lindsay · Preston North End · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Devine · Preston North End · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrija Vukčević · Preston North End · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 69′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAlfie Devine · Preston North End · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEthan Laird · Birmingham City · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetIbrahim Osman · Birmingham City · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSeung Ho Paik · Birmingham City · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 34′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDemarai Gray · Birmingham City · 65′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDemarai Gray · Birmingham City · 86′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAlfie Devine · Preston North End · 53′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOdeluga Offiah · Preston North End · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMilutin Osmajić · Preston North End · 55′ · 0.06 xG · on targetOdeluga Offiah · Preston North End · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLiam Lindsay · Preston North End · 24′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDemarai Gray · Birmingham City · 64′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAndrew Moran · Preston North End · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Osman · Birmingham City · 16′ · 0.08 xG · goalJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 51′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Vicente · Birmingham City · 75′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAugust Priske · Birmingham City · 41′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJhon Solís · Birmingham City · 82′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBrad Potts · Preston North End · 57′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAugust Priske · Birmingham City · 38′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAugust Priske · Birmingham City · 88′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Jebbison · Preston North End · 81′ · 0.19 xG · on targetBrad Potts · Preston North End · 60′ · 0.23 xG · on targetJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 19′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedMilutin Osmajić · Preston North End · 60′ · 0.40 xG · on targetJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 11′ · 0.60 xG · goalAndrew Hughes · Preston North End · 25′ · 0.87 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Birmingham City: 18 shots, 5 on target, 1.94 xG. Preston North End: 18 shots, 6 on target, 2.31 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Jay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 11′Ibrahim Osman · Birmingham City · 16′Andrew Hughes · Preston North End · 25′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Birmingham City 1.94 xG · Preston North End 2.31 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Birmingham City
0Draws
2Preston North End
Preston North End — Birmingham City · Championship0–1
Birmingham City — Preston North End · Championship1–0
Preston North End — Birmingham City · Championship2–1
Birmingham City — Preston North End · Championship1–2
Preston North End — Birmingham City · Championship0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Birmingham City favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Preston North End in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Birmingham City44 matchesPreston North End44 matches
1.23 goals/match ▲Goals scored44/441.16 goals/match
1.23 goals/match ▲Goals allowed44/441.3 goals/match
1.33 xG/match ▲Expected goals44/441.13 xG/match
13.8 shots/match ▲Shots43/4310.7 shots/match
4.12 shots/match ▲Shots on target43/433.44 shots/match
54.5% ●Possession43/4345.6%
5.74 corners/match ●Corners43/434.21 corners/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls43/4310.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples44 / 44home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 22 Apr 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBirmingham CityPreston North End
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headBirmingham City — Preston North End
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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