PitchMath
Championship · 2025St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Birmingham City 2–1 Bristol City · Championship

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Birmingham City won 2–1.

Shots
119
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
1.761.13
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

Birmingham City beat Bristol City 2–1. Recorded in this match (Birmingham City – Bristol City): shots 11–9, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 1.76–1.13, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Birmingham City, Bristol City.

2.8 days ▲Rest daysBirmingham City · Bristol City3.8 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBirmingham CityBristol CityBaseline
Rest days2.8 days3.8 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Birmingham City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Birmingham City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.24 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.24 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Birmingham City have a visible home split

strong

Birmingham City's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.3 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots9 shotsBirmingham City 11 shots, Bristol City 9 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsBirmingham City 6 shots, Bristol City 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.76 xG1.13 xGBirmingham City 1.76 xG, Bristol City 1.13 xG
  • Possession44%56%Birmingham City 44%, Bristol City 56%
  • Corners6 corners5 cornersBirmingham City 6 corners, Bristol City 5 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls8 foulsBirmingham City 10 fouls, Bristol City 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Carlos Vicente · Birmingham City · 50′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 54′ · 0.01 xG · on targetCarlos Vicente · Birmingham City · 1′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNeto Borges · Bristol City · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTomi Horvat · Bristol City · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedScott Twine · Bristol City · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedScott Twine · Bristol City · 5′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDemarai Gray · Birmingham City · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRoss McCrorie · Bristol City · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedScott Twine · Bristol City · 15′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedScott Twine · Bristol City · 66′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDemarai Gray · Birmingham City · 23′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 51′ · 0.10 xG · on targetTomi Horvat · Bristol City · 33′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAugust Priske · Birmingham City · 52′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJhon Solís · Birmingham City · 29′ · 0.17 xG · goalJhon Solís · Birmingham City · 43′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedPhil Neumann · Birmingham City · 8′ · 0.35 xG · goalAugust Priske · Birmingham City · 51′ · 0.49 xG · off target or blockedTomi Horvat · Bristol City · 82′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Birmingham City: 11 shots, 6 on target, 1.61 xG. Bristol City: 9 shots, 2 on target, 1.23 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Phil Neumann · Birmingham City · 8′Jhon Solís · Birmingham City · 29′Tomi Horvat · Bristol City · 82′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Birmingham City 1.61 xG · Bristol City 1.23 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Birmingham City
1Draws
2Bristol City
Bristol City — Birmingham City · Championship1–0
Birmingham City — Bristol City · Championship0–0
Bristol City — Birmingham City · Championship0–2
Bristol City — Birmingham City · Championship4–2
Birmingham City — Bristol City · Championship3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Birmingham City favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Bristol City in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Birmingham City45 matchesBristol City45 matches
1.24 goals/matchGoals scored45/451.27 goals/match
1.22 goals/match ▲Goals allowed45/451.31 goals/match
1.34 xG/match ▲Expected goals45/451.19 xG/match
13.8 shots/match ▲Shots44/4412.2 shots/match
4.16 shots/matchShots on target44/444.09 shots/match
54.2% ●Possession44/4449.7%
5.75 corners/match ●Corners44/444.95 corners/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls44/449.59 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples45 / 45home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBirmingham CityBristol City
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headBirmingham City — Bristol City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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