PitchMath
Serie B · 2026Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Sport Recife 1–0 Novorizontino · Serie B

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Sport Recife won 1–0.

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: sport Recife's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Sport Recife's recent record differs from the season

weak

Sport Recife's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goal/match1 goal/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Sport Recife
1Draws
1Novorizontino
Novorizontino — Sport Recife · Serie B1–3
Sport Recife — Novorizontino · Serie B1–2
Sport Recife — Novorizontino · Serie B1–0
Novorizontino — Sport Recife · Serie B0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Sport Recife favored in 2 of 4 directional metrics · Novorizontino in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Sport Recife6 matchesNovorizontino6 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored6/6▲ 1.17 goals/match
0.67 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/61 goal/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against, shots, shots_on_target, possession, corners, cards, fouls.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingShare of matches scored in rankingFewest goals allowed per match ranking
TeamsSport RecifeNovorizontino
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headSport Recife — Novorizontino
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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