PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Independiente Medellín 2–2 Deportes Tolima · Primera A

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Independiente Medellín and Deportes Tolima drew 2–2.

Shots
245
Shots on target
63
Possession
68%32%

Full time

What the match recorded

Independiente Medellin and Deportes Tolima drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Independiente Medellin – Deportes Tolima): shots 24–5, shots on target 6–3, possession 68%–32%, corners 6–2. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Independiente Medellin show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Independiente Medellin's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.3 shots/match ▲ShotsIndependiente Medellin · Deportes Tolima9.33 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricIndependiente MedellinDeportes TolimaBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match9.33 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against6.67 shots/match17 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Independiente Medellin, Deportes Tolima.

3.09 days ▲Rest daysIndependiente Medellin · Deportes Tolima4 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricIndependiente MedellinDeportes TolimaBaseline
Rest days3.09 days4 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Independiente Medellin have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.7% ●PossessionIndependiente Medellin · Deportes Tolima42%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricIndependiente MedellinDeportes TolimaBaseline
Possession54.7%42%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots24 shots5 shotsIndependiente Medellín 24 shots, Deportes Tolima 5 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shotsIndependiente Medellín 6 shots, Deportes Tolima 3 shots
  • Possession68%32%Independiente Medellín 68%, Deportes Tolima 32%
  • Corners6 corners2 cornersIndependiente Medellín 6 corners, Deportes Tolima 2 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls11 foulsIndependiente Medellín 11 fouls, Deportes Tolima 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards0 cardsIndependiente Medellín 2 cards, Deportes Tolima 0 cards
  • Passes476 passes223 passesIndependiente Medellín 476 passes, Deportes Tolima 223 passes
  • Pass accuracy85%66%Independiente Medellín 85%, Deportes Tolima 66%
  • Shots inside box10 shots3 shotsIndependiente Medellín 10 shots, Deportes Tolima 3 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks0 blocksIndependiente Medellín 5 blocks, Deportes Tolima 0 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save4 savesIndependiente Medellín 1 save, Deportes Tolima 4 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides0 offsidesIndependiente Medellín 2 offsides, Deportes Tolima 0 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Independiente Medellín favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Deportes Tolima in 0 · 11 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Independiente Medellín3 matchesDeportes Tolima3 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored3/3▲ 2 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲ 0.67 goals/match
15.3 shots/match ▲Shots3/39.33 shots/match
4.33 shots/matchShots on target3/34.33 shots/match
54.7% ●Possession3/342%
4.67 corners/match ●Corners3/33 corners/match
13 fouls/matchFouls3/310.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against, cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 28 Jan 2026, 05:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsIndependiente MedellínDeportes Tolima
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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