PitchMath
Primera División · 2026Estadio Ester Roa

Deportes Concepción 3–0 Universidad Católica · Primera División

3–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Deportes Concepción won 3–0.

Shots
1119
Shots on target
36
Possession
37%63%

Full time

What the match recorded

Concepción beat U. Catolica 3–0. Recorded in this match (Concepción – U. Catolica): shots 11–19, shots on target 3–6, possession 37%–63%, corners 4–4. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Concepción's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Concepción's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.12 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.12 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

U. Catolica have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.6%PossessionConcepción · U. Catolica● 56.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricConcepciónU. CatolicaBaseline
Possession46.6%56.5%48.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots19 shotsDeportes Concepción 11 shots, Universidad Católica 19 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots6 shotsDeportes Concepción 3 shots, Universidad Católica 6 shots
  • Possession37%63%Deportes Concepción 37%, Universidad Católica 63%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersDeportes Concepción 4 corners, Universidad Católica 4 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsDeportes Concepción 10 fouls, Universidad Católica 13 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Deportes Concepción
0Draws
1Universidad Católica
Universidad Católica — Deportes Concepción · Primera División2–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Deportes Concepción favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Universidad Católica in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Deportes Concepción17 matchesUniversidad Católica17 matches
1.12 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲ 2.24 goals/match
1.35 goals/match ▲Goals allowed17/171.53 goals/match
0.72 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲ 1.68 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots17/17▲ 13.8 shots/match
3.76 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲ 5 shots/match
46.6%Possession17/17● 56.5%
4.47 corners/matchCorners17/17● 5.06 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/104.3 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 3 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera División

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDeportes ConcepciónUniversidad Católica
CompetitionPrimera División
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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