PitchMath
Primera División · 2026Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida

Audax Italiano 3–4 Universidad Católica · Primera División

3–4Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Universidad Católica won 3–4.

Shots
1112
Shots on target
57
Expected goals
0.81.98
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

U. Catolica beat A. Italiano 4–3. Recorded in this match (A. Italiano – U. Catolica): shots 11–12, shots on target 5–7, expected goals 0.8–1.98, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

A. Italiano show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

A. Italiano's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.56 shots/match ▲ShotsA. Italiano · U. Catolica13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricA. ItalianoU. CatolicaBaseline
Shots9.56 shots/match13.9 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against12.4 shots/match9.67 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

U. Catolica's recent record differs from the season

weak

U. Catolica's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match13.9 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots12 shotsAudax Italiano 11 shots, Universidad Católica 12 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots7 shotsAudax Italiano 5 shots, Universidad Católica 7 shots
  • Expected goals0.8 xG1.98 xGAudax Italiano 0.8 xG, Universidad Católica 1.98 xG
  • Possession46%54%Audax Italiano 46%, Universidad Católica 54%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersAudax Italiano 3 corners, Universidad Católica 5 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls12 foulsAudax Italiano 7 fouls, Universidad Católica 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards6 cards4 cardsAudax Italiano 6 cards, Universidad Católica 4 cards
  • Passes333 passes388 passesAudax Italiano 333 passes, Universidad Católica 388 passes
  • Pass accuracy75%80%Audax Italiano 75%, Universidad Católica 80%
  • Shots inside box6 shots8 shotsAudax Italiano 6 shots, Universidad Católica 8 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block2 blocksAudax Italiano 1 block, Universidad Católica 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves2 savesAudax Italiano 3 saves, Universidad Católica 2 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides5 offsidesAudax Italiano 3 offsides, Universidad Católica 5 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Audax Italiano
2Draws
1Universidad Católica
Audax Italiano — Universidad Católica · Primera División1–1
Universidad Católica — Audax Italiano · Primera División3–1
Audax Italiano — Universidad Católica · Primera División2–1
Universidad Católica — Audax Italiano · Primera División0–0
Universidad Católica — Audax Italiano · Primera División0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Audax Italiano favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Universidad Católica in 6 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Audax Italiano9 matchesUniversidad Católica9 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲ 2.56 goals/match
1.22 goals/match ▲Goals allowed9/91.56 goals/match
9.56 shots/matchShots9/9▲ 13.9 shots/match
3.33 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲ 5.44 shots/match
51.1%Possession9/9● 58.2%
3.89 corners/matchCorners9/9● 4.44 corners/match
4.25 cards/matchCards4/74.57 cards/match
9.33 fouls/matchFouls9/912.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera División

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsAudax ItalianoUniversidad Católica
CompetitionPrimera División
Head-to-headAudax Italiano — Universidad Católica
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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