PitchMath
Eliteserien · 2026

Lillestrøm SK vs Molde FK · Eliteserien

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.42.1
Expected goals
1.471.78
Shots
1214.6
Possession
51.5%59.4%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: molde FK's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: lillestrøm SK's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Molde FK's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Molde FK's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match2.1 goals/match1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lillestrøm SK show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Lillestrøm SK's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsLillestrøm SK · Molde FK14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLillestrøm SKMolde FKBaseline
Shots12 shots/match14.6 shots/match13.7 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match11.9 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lillestrøm SK favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Molde FK in 10 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lillestrøm SK20 matchesMolde FK21 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored20/21▲ 2.1 goals/match
1.3 goals/match ▲Goals allowed20/211.52 goals/match
1.47 xG/matchExpected goals20/21▲ 1.78 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots20/21▲ 14.6 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target20/21▲ 5.48 shots/match
51.5%Possession20/21● 59.4%
5.2 corners/matchCorners20/21● 5.52 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards3/42.75 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls20/2111.5 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Lillestrøm SK
0Draws
3Molde FK
Molde FK — Lillestrøm SK · Eliteserien0–1
Lillestrøm SK — Molde FK · Eliteserien1–2
Molde FK — Lillestrøm SK · Eliteserien3–0
Molde FK — Lillestrøm SK · Eliteserien4–0
Lillestrøm SK — Molde FK · Eliteserien2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness29 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eliteserien

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLillestrøm SKMolde FK
CompetitionEliteserien
Head-to-headLillestrøm SK — Molde FK
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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