PitchMath
Eliteserien · 2026

Lillestrøm SK 2–2 Molde FK · Eliteserien

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Lillestrøm SK and Molde FK drew 2–2.

Shots
1327
Shots on target
512
Expected goals
1.632.95
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lillestrøm SK and Molde FK drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Lillestrøm SK – Molde FK): shots 13–27, shots on target 5–12, expected goals 1.63–2.95, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Molde FK's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Molde FK's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.09 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match2.09 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lillestrøm SK show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Lillestrøm SK's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.1 shots/match ▲ShotsLillestrøm SK · Molde FK15.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLillestrøm SKMolde FKBaseline
Shots12.1 shots/match15.2 shots/match13.9 shots/match
Shots against14.2 shots/match12 shots/match14.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Molde FK have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.2%PossessionLillestrøm SK · Molde FK● 59.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLillestrøm SKMolde FKBaseline
Possession51.2%59.3%49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots27 shotsLillestrøm SK 13 shots, Molde FK 27 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots12 shotsLillestrøm SK 5 shots, Molde FK 12 shots
  • Expected goals1.63 xG2.95 xGLillestrøm SK 1.63 xG, Molde FK 2.95 xG
  • Possession43%57%Lillestrøm SK 43%, Molde FK 57%
  • Corners7 corners6 cornersLillestrøm SK 7 corners, Molde FK 6 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls10 foulsLillestrøm SK 8 fouls, Molde FK 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards4 cardsLillestrøm SK 0 cards, Molde FK 4 cards
  • Passes459 passes626 passesLillestrøm SK 459 passes, Molde FK 626 passes
  • Pass accuracy80.2%88.2%Lillestrøm SK 80.2%, Molde FK 88.2%
  • Shots inside box10 shots19 shotsLillestrøm SK 10 shots, Molde FK 19 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks10 blocksLillestrøm SK 3 blocks, Molde FK 10 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves9 saves3 savesLillestrøm SK 9 saves, Molde FK 3 saves
  • Offsides1 offside0 offsidesLillestrøm SK 1 offside, Molde FK 0 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 10′Sander Hestetun KilenGoal · Molde FK
  2. 16′Felix VáGoal · Lillestrøm SK
  3. 24′Sondre Milian GranaasYellow card · Molde FK
  4. 26′Emil BreivikGoal · Molde FK
  5. 37′Sander Hestetun KilenYellow card · Molde FK
  6. Half-time
  7. 50′Martin LinnesYellow card · Molde FK
  8. 80′Daniel DagaYellow card · Molde FK
  9. 87′Sander Moen FossGoal · Lillestrøm SK
  10. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Molde FK · 1 player changeMats Møller Dæhli
  • 46′Lillestrøm SK · 1 player changeSturla Ottesen
  • 66′Lillestrøm SK · 2 player changesYaw Paintsil · Fredrik Gulbrandsen
  • 67′Molde FK · 3 player changesViktor Bender · Trent Kone Doherty · Niklas Odegard
  • 80′Molde FK · 1 player changeBirk Risa
  • 80′Lillestrøm SK · 1 player changeHenrik Melland
  • 87′Lillestrøm SK · 1 player changeYlldren Ibrahimaj

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Lillestrøm SK4-1-4-1
  1. Pontus DahlbergG
  2. Lars RangerD
  3. Sander Moen FossD
  4. Frederik ElkærD
  5. Ruben GabrielsenD
  6. Gustav Kjolstad NyheimM
  7. Eric KitolanoM
  8. Felix VáM
  9. Filip OttossonM
  10. Daniel BassiM
  11. Thomas Lehne OlsenF

Substitutes

  • Stephan Hagerup
  • Sturla Ottesen
  • Stian Kristiansen
  • Henrik Melland
  • Kevin Martin Krygard
  • Yaw Paintsil
  • Fredrik Gulbrandsen
  • Gustav Nordh
  • Ylldren Ibrahimaj
Molde FK4-1-4-1
  1. Albert PosiadałaG
  2. Mathias LøvikD
  3. Eirik HauganD
  4. Martin LinnesD
  5. Fredrik Kristensen DahlD
  6. Emil BreivikM
  7. Caleb Zady SeryM
  8. Sander Hestetun KilenM
  9. Sondre Milian GranaasM
  10. Daniel DagaM
  11. Kristian LonebuF

Substitutes

  • Peder Hoel Lervik
  • Samukelo Kabini
  • Birk Risa
  • Niklas Odegard
  • Mats Møller Dæhli
  • Viktor Bender
  • Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
  • Trent Kone Doherty
  • Jonathan Heggem Fugelsnes

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Lillestrøm SK
0Draws
3Molde FK
Molde FK — Lillestrøm SK · Eliteserien0–1
Lillestrøm SK — Molde FK · Eliteserien1–2
Molde FK — Lillestrøm SK · Eliteserien3–0
Molde FK — Lillestrøm SK · Eliteserien4–0
Lillestrøm SK — Molde FK · Eliteserien2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lillestrøm SK favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Molde FK in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lillestrøm SK22 matchesMolde FK22 matches
1.36 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲ 2.09 goals/match
1.41 goals/match ▲Goals allowed22/221.55 goals/match
1.49 xG/matchExpected goals22/22▲ 1.84 xG/match
12.1 shots/matchShots22/22▲ 15.2 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target22/22▲ 5.77 shots/match
51.2%Possession22/22● 59.3%
5.32 corners/matchCorners22/22● 5.55 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards3/42.75 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls22/2211.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 21:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eliteserien

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLillestrøm SKMolde FK
CompetitionEliteserien
Head-to-headLillestrøm SK — Molde FK
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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