Eliteserien · 2026Mon, 27 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTCScheduledLerkendal StadionPre-match analysis

Rosenborg

LLDWW

vsPre-match analysis

Fredrikstad

WDWLL

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rosenborg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Fredrikstad's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Rosenborg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rosenborg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.15 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.15 goals/match	1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fredrikstad have a visible away split

moderate

Fredrikstad's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.14 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.14 shots/match	11.2 shots/match	12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Rosenborg favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Fredrikstad in 2 · 7 too close

1.15 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/131.15 goals/match

1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/131.77 goals/match

1.24 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/131.14 xG/match

1.4 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 13/131.62 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/1311.2 shots/match

13.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/1313.5 shots/match

3.69 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 13/133.46 shots/match

4.92 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/135.08 shots/match

52.5%Possessionseason · 13/1348.4%

5.54 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/134.23 corners/match

6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲5.31 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/1—

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1311.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/130%

54%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲69%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rosenborg78.1

Fredrikstad40.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rosenborg28.1

Fredrikstad18.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rosenborg42.7

Fredrikstad28.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rosenborg15.6

Fredrikstad40.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rosenborg21.9

Fredrikstad53.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rosenborg59.4

Fredrikstad21.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rosenborg32

Fredrikstad23.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match

1.42 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.09 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShots5/511.6 shots/match

4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match

57.2%Possession5/551.6%

4.6 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match

—Cards0/1—

11 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match

1.4 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.25 xG/match

12.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.7 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.2 shots/match

53.6%Possession10/1048.6%

5.2 corners/matchCorners10/104.3 corners/match

—Cards0/1—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches

1.15 goals/matchGoals scored13/131.15 goals/match

1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.77 goals/match

1.24 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.14 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShots13/1311.2 shots/match

3.69 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.46 shots/match

52.5%Possession13/1348.4%

5.54 corners/matchCorners13/134.23 corners/match

—Cards0/1—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches

1.71 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.86 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.14 goals/match

1.47 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.07 xG/match

12.9 shots/match▲Shots7/79.14 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.14 shots/match

55%Possession7/747.9%

7 corners/matchCorners7/73.57 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls7/712.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.99 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples13 / 13home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness10 daysfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 27 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4