PitchMath
Allsvenskan · 2026Stadion

Malmö FF 1–2 IF Elfsborg · Allsvenskan

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

IF Elfsborg won 1–2.

Shots
109
Shots on target
14
Expected goals
1.280.92
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

IF Elfsborg beat Malmö FF 2–1. Recorded in this match (Malmö FF – IF Elfsborg): shots 10–9, shots on target 1–4, expected goals 1.28–0.92, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Malmö FF's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Malmö FF's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

IF Elfsborg have a visible away split

moderate

IF Elfsborg's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.57 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.57 shots/match11.3 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Malmö FF have recorded the higher season possession share.

56% ●PossessionMalmö FF · IF Elfsborg45.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMalmö FFIF ElfsborgBaseline
Possession56%45.5%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots9 shotsMalmö FF 10 shots, IF Elfsborg 9 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot4 shotsMalmö FF 1 shot, IF Elfsborg 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.28 xG0.92 xGMalmö FF 1.28 xG, IF Elfsborg 0.92 xG
  • Possession61%39%Malmö FF 61%, IF Elfsborg 39%
  • Corners5 corners3 cornersMalmö FF 5 corners, IF Elfsborg 3 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls9 foulsMalmö FF 18 fouls, IF Elfsborg 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards1 cardMalmö FF 4 cards, IF Elfsborg 1 card
  • Passes587 passes388 passesMalmö FF 587 passes, IF Elfsborg 388 passes
  • Pass accuracy87.7%83.5%Malmö FF 87.7%, IF Elfsborg 83.5%
  • Shots inside box8 shots6 shotsMalmö FF 8 shots, IF Elfsborg 6 shots
  • Blocked shots6 blocks1 blockMalmö FF 6 blocks, IF Elfsborg 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves0 savesMalmö FF 2 saves, IF Elfsborg 0 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides5 offsidesMalmö FF 0 offsides, IF Elfsborg 5 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Momoh Ibrahim Kamara · IF Elfsborg · 21′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedAnton Höög · Malmö FF · 24′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedSead Hakšabanović · Malmö FF · 42′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedMomoh Ibrahim Kamara · IF Elfsborg · 65′ · 0.00 xG · on targetOtto Rosengren · Malmö FF · 71′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedIsaac Assibu · Malmö FF · 77′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedDiego García · Malmö FF · 87′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedNiklas Hult · IF Elfsborg · 31′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBusanello · Malmö FF · 87′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFrode Aronsson · IF Elfsborg · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetFrederik Ihler · IF Elfsborg · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRasmus Wikström · IF Elfsborg · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Đurić · Malmö FF · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArbër Zeneli · IF Elfsborg · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedArbër Zeneli · IF Elfsborg · 5′ · 0.10 xG · goalJens Stryger Larsen · Malmö FF · 22′ · 0.10 xG · goalMomoh Ibrahim Kamara · IF Elfsborg · 34′ · 0.10 xG · goalDiego García · Malmö FF · 72′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Malmö FF: 9 shots, 1 on target, 0.24 xG. IF Elfsborg: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.29 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.250.50′HT90′Jens Stryger Larsen · Malmö FF · 22′Arbër Zeneli · IF Elfsborg · 5′Momoh Ibrahim Kamara · IF Elfsborg · 34′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Malmö FF 0.24 xG · IF Elfsborg 0.29 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Malmö FF
1Draws
1IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg — Malmö FF · Allsvenskan2–2
Malmö FF — IF Elfsborg · Allsvenskan2–1
Malmö FF — IF Elfsborg · Allsvenskan2–1
IF Elfsborg — Malmö FF · Allsvenskan3–1
Malmö FF — IF Elfsborg · Allsvenskan1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Malmö FF favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · IF Elfsborg in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Malmö FF14 matchesIF Elfsborg15 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored14/151.33 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed14/15▲ 1.2 goals/match
2.34 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/71.48 xG/match
14 shots/match ▲Shots14/1511.3 shots/match
4.64 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/153.73 shots/match
56% ●Possession14/1545.5%
4.86 corners/match ●Corners14/153.8 corners/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls14/1510.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples14 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Jul 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Allsvenskan

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMalmö FFIF Elfsborg
CompetitionAllsvenskan
Head-to-headMalmö FF — IF Elfsborg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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