PitchMath
Allsvenskan · 2026Gamla Ullevi

Örgryte IS 4–3 BK Häcken · Allsvenskan

4–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Örgryte IS won 4–3.

Shots
1319
Shots on target
59
Expected goals
1.481.78
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

Orgryte IS beat BK Hacken 4–3. Recorded in this match (Orgryte IS – BK Hacken): shots 13–19, shots on target 5–9, expected goals 1.48–1.78, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Orgryte IS's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Orgryte IS's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

BK Hacken show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

BK Hacken's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.9 shots/match ▲ShotsOrgryte IS · BK Hacken15.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricOrgryte ISBK HackenBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match15.2 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots against18 shots/match13.3 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots19 shotsÖrgryte IS 13 shots, BK Häcken 19 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots9 shotsÖrgryte IS 5 shots, BK Häcken 9 shots
  • Expected goals1.48 xG1.78 xGÖrgryte IS 1.48 xG, BK Häcken 1.78 xG
  • Possession39%61%Örgryte IS 39%, BK Häcken 61%
  • Corners5 corners8 cornersÖrgryte IS 5 corners, BK Häcken 8 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls13 foulsÖrgryte IS 13 fouls, BK Häcken 13 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Örgryte IS favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · BK Häcken in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Örgryte IS12 matchesBK Häcken12 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲ 2.08 goals/match
2.58 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲ 1.83 goals/match
1.21 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲ 1.81 xG/match
10.9 shots/matchShots12/12▲ 15.2 shots/match
3.92 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲ 5.25 shots/match
45.2%Possession12/12● 52%
4.25 corners/matchCorners12/12● 5.83 corners/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Jul 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Allsvenskan

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsÖrgryte ISBK Häcken
CompetitionAllsvenskan
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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