PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Estadio Urbano Caldeira

Santos vs Grêmio · Serie A

Santos

WWWDL
vsPre-match analysis

Grêmio

LLDDD

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.521.07
Expected goals
1.410.89
Shots
1311.4
Possession
49.2%49.7%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: santos's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Santos's recent record differs from the season

weak

Santos's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.52 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.52 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Santos favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Grêmio in 1 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Santos29 matchesGrêmio29 matches
1.52 goals/match ▲Goals scored29/291.07 goals/match
1.48 goals/matchGoals allowed29/29▲ 1.34 goals/match
1.41 xG/match ▲Expected goals25/250.89 xG/match
13 shots/match ▲Shots29/2911.4 shots/match
3.93 shots/match ▲Shots on target29/293.59 shots/match
49.2%Possession29/29● 49.7%
5.03 corners/match ●Corners29/294 corners/match
3.5 cards/matchCards8/42.5 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls29/2913.3 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Santos
1Draws
3Grêmio
Grêmio — Santos · Serie A3–2
Santos — Grêmio · Serie A1–1
Grêmio — Santos · Serie A1–0
Santos — Grêmio · Serie A2–1
Grêmio — Santos · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness42 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSantosGrêmio
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headSantos — Grêmio
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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