PitchMath
Serie A · 2026MRV Arena

Atlético Mineiro vs Corinthians · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.341.07
Expected goals
1.331.04
Shots
13.913
Possession
49.6%55%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: atletico-MG's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Atletico-MG's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atletico-MG's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.34 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.34 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Mineiro favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Corinthians in 4 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Mineiro29 matchesCorinthians28 matches
1.34 goals/match ▲Goals scored29/281.07 goals/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed29/281.32 goals/match
1.33 xG/match ▲Expected goals25/241.04 xG/match
13.9 shots/match ▲Shots29/2813 shots/match
4.79 shots/match ▲Shots on target29/283.82 shots/match
49.6%Possession29/28● 55%
5.17 corners/matchCorners29/28● 5.21 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/43.5 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls29/2813.4 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Atlético Mineiro
2Draws
2Corinthians
Corinthians — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A1–0
Corinthians — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A1–0
Atlético Mineiro — Corinthians · Serie A0–0
Atlético Mineiro — Corinthians · Serie A2–1
Corinthians — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness42 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético MineiroCorinthians
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headAtlético Mineiro — Corinthians
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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