PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Grêmio vs Bahia · Serie A

Grêmio

LLDDD
vsPre-match analysis

Bahia

WWLLW

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.071.54
Expected goals
0.891.72
Shots
11.414.7
Possession
49.7%55%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: gremio's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Gremio have a visible home split

moderate

Gremio's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match11.4 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Grêmio favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Bahia in 10 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Grêmio29 matchesBahia28 matches
1.07 goals/matchGoals scored29/28▲ 1.54 goals/match
1.34 goals/matchGoals allowed29/28▲ 1.25 goals/match
0.89 xG/matchExpected goals25/25▲ 1.72 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots29/28▲ 14.7 shots/match
3.59 shots/matchShots on target29/28▲ 5.07 shots/match
49.7%Possession29/28● 55%
4 corners/matchCorners29/28● 5.68 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/34 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls29/2814 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Grêmio
1Draws
3Bahia
Bahia — Grêmio · Serie A1–1
Bahia — Grêmio · Serie A4–0
Grêmio — Bahia · Serie A1–0
Grêmio — Bahia · Serie A0–2
Bahia — Grêmio · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness38 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 18 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsGrêmioBahia
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headGrêmio — Bahia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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