PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Allianz Parque

Palmeiras vs Flamengo · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.682
Expected goals
1.21.64
Shots
15.315.6
Possession
51.4%56.3%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: palmeiras's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Palmeiras's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Palmeiras's last-five shots average is above their season average.

23 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season15.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots23 shots/match15.3 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Palmeiras favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Flamengo in 5 · 7 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Palmeiras28 matchesFlamengo28 matches
1.68 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲ 2 goals/match
0.71 goals/match ▲Goals allowed28/280.82 goals/match
1.2 xG/matchExpected goals24/25▲ 1.64 xG/match
15.3 shots/matchShots28/2815.6 shots/match
5.18 shots/matchShots on target28/285.36 shots/match
51.4%Possession28/28● 56.3%
6.14 corners/match ●Corners28/285.29 corners/match
2.57 cards/matchCards7/53 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls28/2811.9 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Palmeiras
2Draws
2Flamengo
Flamengo — Palmeiras · Serie A0–3
Flamengo — Palmeiras · Serie A3–2
Palmeiras — Flamengo · Serie A0–2
Flamengo — Palmeiras · Serie A1–1
Palmeiras — Flamengo · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness42 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPalmeirasFlamengo
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headPalmeiras — Flamengo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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