PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.272.04
Expected goals
1.491.66
Shots
17.815.7
Possession
53.7%56.8%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: vasco DA Gama's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Vasco DA Gama's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Vasco DA Gama's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.27 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vasco da Gama favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Flamengo in 7 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vasco da Gama26 matchesFlamengo26 matches
1.27 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 2.04 goals/match
1.54 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲ 0.81 goals/match
1.49 xG/matchExpected goals22/23▲ 1.66 xG/match
17.8 shots/match ▲Shots26/2615.7 shots/match
5.42 shots/matchShots on target26/265.31 shots/match
53.7%Possession26/26● 56.8%
5.58 corners/match ●Corners26/265.35 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/42.5 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls26/2611.5 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Vasco da Gama
4Draws
1Flamengo
Flamengo — Vasco da Gama · Serie A2–2
Flamengo — Vasco da Gama · Serie A1–1
Vasco da Gama — Flamengo · Serie A0–0
Flamengo — Vasco da Gama · Serie A1–1
Vasco da Gama — Flamengo · Serie A1–6

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness39 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVasco da GamaFlamengo
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headVasco da Gama — Flamengo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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