Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro — Stats & Match Analysis

Serie A · 2026Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC

Flamengo

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vsPre-match analysis

Atlético Mineiro

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Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored: 2.041.31
Expected goals: 1.661.36
Shots: 15.713.8
Possession: 56.8%50%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: atletico-MG's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Alongside it: flamengo's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Flamengo's recent record differs from the season

weak

Flamengo's last-five shots average is above their season average.

19.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season15.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	19.2 shots/match	15.7 shots/match	13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atletico-MG have a visible away split

moderate

Atletico-MG's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.6 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.6 shots/match	13.8 shots/match	13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Flamengo favored in 12 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Mineiro in 0 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Flamengo26 matchesAtlético Mineiro26 matches

2.04 goals/match ▲Goals scored26/261.31 goals/match

0.81 goals/match ▲Goals allowed26/261.19 goals/match

1.66 xG/match ▲Expected goals23/221.36 xG/match

15.7 shots/match ▲Shots26/2613.8 shots/match

5.31 shots/match ▲Shots on target26/264.69 shots/match

56.8% ●Possession26/2650%

5.35 corners/match ●Corners26/265 corners/match

2.5 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match

11.5 fouls/matchFouls26/2611.5 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Flamengo

1Draws

1Atlético Mineiro

26 Apr 2026Atlético Mineiro — Flamengo · Serie A0–4

26 Nov 2025Atlético Mineiro — Flamengo · Serie A1–1

6 Aug 2025Atlético Mineiro — Flamengo · Copa do Brasil0–1

1 Aug 2025Flamengo — Atlético Mineiro · Copa do Brasil0–1

27 Jul 2025Flamengo — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited

Season samples26 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness36 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match ranking xG per match ranking Shots per match ranking

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Season

What the record shows