PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Santos vs Bahia · Serie A

Santos

DWWWW
vsPre-match analysis

Bahia

WWWWL

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.51.62
Expected goals
1.421.71
Shots
13.214.8
Possession
49.7%54.9%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: bahia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Bahia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bahia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.62 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.62 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Santos favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Bahia in 7 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Santos26 matchesBahia26 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 1.62 goals/match
1.46 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲ 1.31 goals/match
1.42 xG/matchExpected goals22/23▲ 1.71 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShots26/26▲ 14.8 shots/match
3.96 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲ 5.35 shots/match
49.7%Possession26/26● 54.9%
5.27 corners/matchCorners26/26● 5.77 corners/match
3.14 cards/matchCards7/34 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls26/2614.1 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Santos
2Draws
1Bahia
Bahia — Santos · Serie A2–2
Bahia — Santos · Serie A2–0
Santos — Bahia · Serie A2–2
Bahia — Santos · Serie A1–2
Santos — Bahia · Serie A3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness36 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSantosBahia
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headSantos — Bahia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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