PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Bahia vs São Paulo · Serie A

Bahia

WWWWL
vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.621.19
Expected goals
1.711.23
Shots
14.813.3
Possession
54.9%53.9%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: bahia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Bahia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bahia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.62 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.62 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.77 corners/matchCornersBahia · Sao Paulo● 6.77 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBahiaSao PauloBaseline
Corners5.77 corners/match6.77 corners/match5.19 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bahia favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · São Paulo in 5 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bahia26 matchesSão Paulo26 matches
1.62 goals/match ▲Goals scored26/261.19 goals/match
1.31 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲ 1.12 goals/match
1.71 xG/match ▲Expected goals23/221.23 xG/match
14.8 shots/match ▲Shots26/2613.3 shots/match
5.35 shots/match ▲Shots on target26/264.15 shots/match
54.9% ●Possession26/2653.9%
5.77 corners/matchCorners26/26● 6.77 corners/match
4 cards/matchCards3/51.6 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls26/2614.3 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Bahia
1Draws
3São Paulo
São Paulo — Bahia · Serie A2–2
São Paulo — Bahia · Serie A2–0
Bahia — São Paulo · Serie A2–1
Bahia — São Paulo · Serie A0–3
São Paulo — Bahia · Serie A3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness39 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBahiaSão Paulo
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headBahia — São Paulo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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