PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Fluminense vs Santos · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Santos

WDWWW

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.61.48
Expected goals
1.251.44
Shots
14.713.3
Possession
59.1%49.6%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: santos's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: fluminense have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Santos's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Santos's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.48 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Fluminense have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.1% ●PossessionFluminense · Santos49.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFluminenseSantosBaseline
Possession59.1%49.6%50.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fluminense favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Santos in 3 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fluminense25 matchesSantos25 matches
1.6 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/251.48 goals/match
1.36 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/251.48 goals/match
1.25 xG/matchExpected goals21/21▲ 1.44 xG/match
14.7 shots/match ▲Shots25/2513.3 shots/match
5.56 shots/match ▲Shots on target25/253.96 shots/match
59.1% ●Possession25/2549.6%
5.76 corners/match ●Corners25/255.32 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards5/63 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls25/2513 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Fluminense
1Draws
0Santos
Santos — Fluminense · Serie A2–3
Santos — Fluminense · Serie A0–0
Fluminense — Santos · Serie A1–0
Santos — Fluminense · Serie A0–3
Fluminense — Santos · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness36 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFluminenseSantos
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headFluminense — Santos
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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