PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Palmeiras 2–0 São Paulo · Serie A

2–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Palmeiras won 2–0.

Shots
198
Shots on target
72
Expected goals
2.431.29
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

Palmeiras beat São Paulo 2–0. Recorded in this match (Palmeiras – São Paulo): shots 19–8, shots on target 7–2, expected goals 2.43–1.29, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

São Paulo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

São Paulo's last-five shots average is above their season average.

17.6 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots17.6 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.96 corners/matchCornersPalmeiras · São Paulo● 6.92 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricPalmeirasSão PauloBaseline
Corners5.96 corners/match6.92 corners/match5 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots8 shotsPalmeiras 19 shots, São Paulo 8 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots2 shotsPalmeiras 7 shots, São Paulo 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.43 xG1.29 xGPalmeiras 2.43 xG, São Paulo 1.29 xG
  • Possession57%43%Palmeiras 57%, São Paulo 43%
  • Corners9 corners6 cornersPalmeiras 9 corners, São Paulo 6 corners
  • Fouls21 fouls12 foulsPalmeiras 21 fouls, São Paulo 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards1 cardPalmeiras 4 cards, São Paulo 1 card
  • Passes527 passes400 passesPalmeiras 527 passes, São Paulo 400 passes
  • Pass accuracy86.9%83.8%Palmeiras 86.9%, São Paulo 83.8%
  • Shots inside box12 shots4 shotsPalmeiras 12 shots, São Paulo 4 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks4 blocksPalmeiras 3 blocks, São Paulo 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves5 savesPalmeiras 2 saves, São Paulo 5 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides0 offsidesPalmeiras 3 offsides, São Paulo 0 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Palmeiras
1Draws
0São Paulo
São Paulo — Palmeiras · Serie A0–1
São Paulo — Palmeiras · Serie A2–3
Palmeiras — São Paulo · Serie A1–0
Palmeiras — São Paulo · Serie A2–1
São Paulo — Palmeiras · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Palmeiras favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · São Paulo in 4 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Palmeiras25 matchesSão Paulo25 matches
1.68 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/251.2 goals/match
0.76 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/251.16 goals/match
1.04 xG/matchExpected goals21/21▲ 1.24 xG/match
14 shots/matchShots25/2513.6 shots/match
4.64 shots/match ▲Shots on target25/254.28 shots/match
50.9%Possession25/25● 54.3%
5.96 corners/matchCorners25/25● 6.92 corners/match
2.57 cards/matchCards7/51.6 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls25/2514.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPalmeirasSão Paulo
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headPalmeiras — São Paulo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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