PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Fluminense 1–0 Vasco da Gama · Serie A

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Fluminense won 1–0.

Shots
714
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
1.680.69
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fluminense beat Vasco da Gama 1–0. Recorded in this match (Fluminense – Vasco da Gama): shots 7–14, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 1.68–0.69, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Vasco da Gama's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Vasco da Gama's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.08 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.08 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots14 shotsFluminense 7 shots, Vasco da Gama 14 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsFluminense 4 shots, Vasco da Gama 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.68 xG0.69 xGFluminense 1.68 xG, Vasco da Gama 0.69 xG
  • Possession45%55%Fluminense 45%, Vasco da Gama 55%
  • Corners6 corners6 cornersFluminense 6 corners, Vasco da Gama 6 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls20 foulsFluminense 11 fouls, Vasco da Gama 20 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards4 cardsFluminense 4 cards, Vasco da Gama 4 cards
  • Passes427 passes510 passesFluminense 427 passes, Vasco da Gama 510 passes
  • Pass accuracy83.1%87.3%Fluminense 83.1%, Vasco da Gama 87.3%
  • Shots inside box6 shots7 shotsFluminense 6 shots, Vasco da Gama 7 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block3 blocksFluminense 1 block, Vasco da Gama 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves3 savesFluminense 4 saves, Vasco da Gama 3 saves
  • Offsides1 offside1 offsideFluminense 1 offside, Vasco da Gama 1 offside

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Fluminense
0Draws
3Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama — Fluminense · Serie A3–2
Fluminense — Vasco da Gama · Copa do Brasil1–0
Vasco da Gama — Fluminense · Copa do Brasil2–1
Vasco da Gama — Fluminense · Serie A2–0
Fluminense — Vasco da Gama · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fluminense favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Vasco da Gama in 5 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fluminense24 matchesVasco da Gama24 matches
1.63 goals/match ▲Goals scored24/241.08 goals/match
1.29 goals/match ▲Goals allowed24/241.63 goals/match
1.28 xG/matchExpected goals20/20▲ 1.36 xG/match
15 shots/matchShots24/24▲ 17.2 shots/match
5.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target24/245.21 shots/match
59.4% ●Possession24/2453.4%
5.92 corners/match ●Corners24/245.33 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards5/41.75 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls24/2413.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 6 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFluminenseVasco da Gama
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headFluminense — Vasco da Gama
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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