Athletico 3–3 Fluminense — Match Stats & Analysis

Serie A · 2026Sun, 30 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC

Athletico

WWWDW

3–3Full-time analysis

Fluminense

DDDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Athletico and Fluminense drew 3–3.

Shots: 1712
Shots on target: 86
Expected goals: 1.920.56
Possession: 47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Athletico and Fluminense drew 3–3. Recorded in this match (Athletico – Fluminense): shots 17–12, shots on target 8–6, expected goals 1.92–0.56, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Athletico's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Athletico's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.52 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.52 goals/match	1.28 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Athletico have a visible home split

moderate

Athletico's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.3 shots/match	12.3 shots/match	13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Fluminense have recorded the higher season possession share.

47%PossessionAthletico · Fluminense● 60%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Athletico	Fluminense	Baseline
Possession	47%	60%	49.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

Shots17 shots12 shotsAthletico 17 shots, Fluminense 12 shots
Shots on target8 shots6 shotsAthletico 8 shots, Fluminense 6 shots
Expected goals1.92 xG0.56 xGAthletico 1.92 xG, Fluminense 0.56 xG
Possession47%53%Athletico 47%, Fluminense 53%
Corners8 corners3 cornersAthletico 8 corners, Fluminense 3 corners
Fouls15 fouls12 foulsAthletico 15 fouls, Fluminense 12 fouls
Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsAthletico 2 cards, Fluminense 2 cards
Passes444 passes526 passesAthletico 444 passes, Fluminense 526 passes
Pass accuracy88.3%87.1%Athletico 88.3%, Fluminense 87.1%
Shots inside box13 shots7 shotsAthletico 13 shots, Fluminense 7 shots
Blocked shots6 blocks3 blocksAthletico 6 blocks, Fluminense 3 blocks
Goalkeeper saves3 saves5 savesAthletico 3 saves, Fluminense 5 saves
Offsides4 offsides0 offsidesAthletico 4 offsides, Fluminense 0 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Athletico: 17 shots, 8 on target, 1.95 xG. Fluminense: 12 shots, 6 on target, 0.56 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Athletico 1.95 xG · Fluminense 0.56 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Athletico

2Draws

3Fluminense

15 Mar 2026Fluminense — Athletico · Serie A3–2

1 Dec 2024Athletico — Fluminense · Serie A1–1

22 Oct 2024Fluminense — Athletico · Serie A1–0

27 Aug 2023Athletico — Fluminense · Serie A2–2

22 Apr 2023Fluminense — Athletico · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Athletico favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Fluminense in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Athletico23 matchesFluminense23 matches

1.52 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲ 1.65 goals/match

1.09 goals/match ▲Goals allowed23/231.35 goals/match

1.34 xG/match ▲Expected goals19/191.26 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShots23/23▲ 15.3 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲ 5.74 shots/match

47%Possession23/23● 60%

5.04 corners/matchCorners23/23● 5.91 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards4/53.4 cards/match

13.7 fouls/matchFouls23/2313.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready

Season samples23 / 23home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match ranking xG per match ranking Shots per match ranking

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Match at a glance

What the match recorded