PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Red Bull Bragantino 2–3 Bahia · Serie A

2–3Full-time analysis

Bahia

DDDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Bahia won 2–3.

Shots
2411
Shots on target
105
Expected goals
1.652.36
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bahia beat Red Bull Bragantino 3–2. Recorded in this match (Red Bull Bragantino – Bahia): shots 24–11, shots on target 10–5, expected goals 1.65–2.36, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bahia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bahia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.63 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.71 corners/matchCornersRed Bull Bragantino · Bahia● 5.83 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricRed Bull BragantinoBahiaBaseline
Corners5.71 corners/match5.83 corners/match5.09 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots24 shots11 shotsRed Bull Bragantino 24 shots, Bahia 11 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots5 shotsRed Bull Bragantino 10 shots, Bahia 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.65 xG2.36 xGRed Bull Bragantino 1.65 xG, Bahia 2.36 xG
  • Possession51%49%Red Bull Bragantino 51%, Bahia 49%
  • Corners10 corners8 cornersRed Bull Bragantino 10 corners, Bahia 8 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls17 foulsRed Bull Bragantino 11 fouls, Bahia 17 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsRed Bull Bragantino 2 cards, Bahia 2 cards
  • Passes390 passes379 passesRed Bull Bragantino 390 passes, Bahia 379 passes
  • Pass accuracy83.6%82.1%Red Bull Bragantino 83.6%, Bahia 82.1%
  • Shots inside box12 shots10 shotsRed Bull Bragantino 12 shots, Bahia 10 shots
  • Blocked shots6 blocks1 blockRed Bull Bragantino 6 blocks, Bahia 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves9 savesRed Bull Bragantino 2 saves, Bahia 9 saves
  • Offsides1 offside0 offsidesRed Bull Bragantino 1 offside, Bahia 0 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Red Bull Bragantino
0Draws
4Bahia
Bahia — Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A2–0
Bahia — Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A2–1
Red Bull Bragantino — Bahia · Serie A0–3
Red Bull Bragantino — Bahia · Serie A2–1
Bahia — Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Red Bull Bragantino favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Bahia in 5 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Red Bull Bragantino24 matchesBahia24 matches
1.29 goals/matchGoals scored24/24▲ 1.63 goals/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed24/241.29 goals/match
1.43 xG/matchExpected goals20/21▲ 1.71 xG/match
16 shots/match ▲Shots24/2414.9 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target24/24▲ 5.29 shots/match
50.3%Possession24/24● 54.8%
5.71 corners/matchCorners24/24● 5.83 corners/match
5.25 cards/matchCards4/34 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls24/2414 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 5 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRed Bull BragantinoBahia
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headRed Bull Bragantino — Bahia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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