PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Cruzeiro 3–1 Athletico · Serie A

3–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Cruzeiro won 3–1.

Shots
1917
Shots on target
67
Expected goals
3.071.31
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cruzeiro beat Athletico 3–1. Recorded in this match (Cruzeiro – Athletico): shots 19–17, shots on target 6–7, expected goals 3.07–1.31, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cruzeiro's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cruzeiro's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.54 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.54 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Cruzeiro have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.2% ●PossessionCruzeiro · Athletico46.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCruzeiroAthleticoBaseline
Possession55.2%46.7%49.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots17 shotsCruzeiro 19 shots, Athletico 17 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots7 shotsCruzeiro 6 shots, Athletico 7 shots
  • Expected goals3.07 xG1.31 xGCruzeiro 3.07 xG, Athletico 1.31 xG
  • Possession61%39%Cruzeiro 61%, Athletico 39%
  • Corners7 corners2 cornersCruzeiro 7 corners, Athletico 2 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls14 foulsCruzeiro 9 fouls, Athletico 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsCruzeiro 2 cards, Athletico 2 cards
  • Passes590 passes381 passesCruzeiro 590 passes, Athletico 381 passes
  • Pass accuracy87.3%82.2%Cruzeiro 87.3%, Athletico 82.2%
  • Shots inside box13 shots8 shotsCruzeiro 13 shots, Athletico 8 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks4 blocksCruzeiro 2 blocks, Athletico 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves6 saves3 savesCruzeiro 6 saves, Athletico 3 saves
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesCruzeiro 1 offside, Athletico 2 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Cruzeiro
2Draws
2Athletico
Athletico — Cruzeiro · Serie A2–1
Athletico — Cruzeiro · Serie A3–0
Cruzeiro — Athletico · Serie A2–0
Cruzeiro — Athletico · Serie A1–1
Athletico — Cruzeiro · Serie A3–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cruzeiro favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Athletico in 3 · 7 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cruzeiro24 matchesAthletico24 matches
1.54 goals/matchGoals scored24/241.5 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲ 1.17 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals20/201.34 xG/match
14.5 shots/match ▲Shots24/2412.5 shots/match
4.92 shots/matchShots on target24/245.08 shots/match
55.2% ●Possession24/2446.7%
5.33 corners/match ●Corners24/244.92 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards4/41.75 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls24/2413.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 6 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCruzeiroAthletico
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headCruzeiro — Athletico
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required