PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Cruzeiro 1–1 Fluminense · Serie A

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Cruzeiro and Fluminense drew 1–1.

Shots
1910
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
1.110.77
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cruzeiro and Fluminense drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Cruzeiro – Fluminense): shots 19–10, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 1.11–0.77, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fluminense's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fluminense's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.56 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots10 shotsCruzeiro 19 shots, Fluminense 10 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsCruzeiro 3 shots, Fluminense 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.11 xG0.77 xGCruzeiro 1.11 xG, Fluminense 0.77 xG
  • Possession61%39%Cruzeiro 61%, Fluminense 39%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersCruzeiro 5 corners, Fluminense 4 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls15 foulsCruzeiro 12 fouls, Fluminense 15 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Cruzeiro
1Draws
2Fluminense
Cruzeiro — Fluminense · Serie A0–0
Fluminense — Cruzeiro · Serie A0–2
Fluminense — Cruzeiro · Serie A1–0
Cruzeiro — Fluminense · Serie A2–0
Fluminense — Cruzeiro · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cruzeiro favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Fluminense in 4 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cruzeiro18 matchesFluminense18 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲ 1.56 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲ 1.28 goals/match
1.41 xG/match ▲Expected goals14/141.24 xG/match
14.1 shots/matchShots18/1814.7 shots/match
4.72 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲ 5.72 shots/match
56.1%Possession18/18● 59.3%
5.33 corners/matchCorners18/18● 5.5 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards4/43.5 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls18/1813.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 1 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCruzeiroFluminense
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headCruzeiro — Fluminense
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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