PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Mirassol 1–0 Fluminense · Serie A

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Mirassol won 1–0.

Shots
1310
Shots on target
81
Expected goals
0.510.6
Possession
33%67%

Full time

What the match recorded

Mirassol beat Fluminense 1–0. Recorded in this match (Mirassol – Fluminense): shots 13–10, shots on target 8–1, expected goals 0.51–0.6, possession 33%–67%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fluminense's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fluminense's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.59 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.59 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Fluminense have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.6%PossessionMirassol · Fluminense● 60.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMirassolFluminenseBaseline
Possession51.6%60.5%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots10 shotsMirassol 13 shots, Fluminense 10 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots1 shotMirassol 8 shots, Fluminense 1 shot
  • Expected goals0.51 xG0.6 xGMirassol 0.51 xG, Fluminense 0.6 xG
  • Possession33%67%Mirassol 33%, Fluminense 67%
  • Corners4 corners5 cornersMirassol 4 corners, Fluminense 5 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls14 foulsMirassol 12 fouls, Fluminense 14 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Mirassol
0Draws
1Fluminense
Fluminense — Mirassol · Serie A1–0
Mirassol — Fluminense · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Mirassol favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Fluminense in 10 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Mirassol16 matchesFluminense17 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored16/17▲ 1.59 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed16/17▲ 1.29 goals/match
1.04 xG/matchExpected goals13/13▲ 1.27 xG/match
14.2 shots/matchShots16/17▲ 15 shots/match
4.75 shots/matchShots on target16/17▲ 5.76 shots/match
51.6%Possession16/17● 60.5%
5.81 corners/match ●Corners16/175.59 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards3/43.5 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls16/1713.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples16 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 25 May 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMirassolFluminense
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headMirassol — Fluminense
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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