PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Flamengo 0–3 Palmeiras · Serie A

0–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Palmeiras won 0–3.

Shots
2212
Shots on target
36
Expected goals
1.120.9
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Palmeiras beat Flamengo 3–0. Recorded in this match (Flamengo – Palmeiras): shots 22–12, shots on target 3–6, expected goals 1.12–0.9, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Palmeiras's recent record differs from the season

weak

Palmeiras's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.71 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Flamengo have a visible home split

moderate

Flamengo's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.9 shots/match14.5 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots12 shotsFlamengo 22 shots, Palmeiras 12 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots6 shotsFlamengo 3 shots, Palmeiras 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.12 xG0.9 xGFlamengo 1.12 xG, Palmeiras 0.9 xG
  • Possession48%52%Flamengo 48%, Palmeiras 52%
  • Corners8 corners4 cornersFlamengo 8 corners, Palmeiras 4 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls19 foulsFlamengo 9 fouls, Palmeiras 19 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Flamengo
2Draws
0Palmeiras
Flamengo — Palmeiras · Serie A3–2
Palmeiras — Flamengo · Serie A0–2
Flamengo — Palmeiras · Serie A1–1
Palmeiras — Flamengo · Serie A0–0
Flamengo — Palmeiras · Serie A3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Flamengo favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Palmeiras in 4 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Flamengo16 matchesPalmeiras17 matches
1.75 goals/matchGoals scored16/171.71 goals/match
1 goal/matchGoals allowed16/17▲ 0.76 goals/match
1.49 xG/match ▲Expected goals13/130.86 xG/match
14.5 shots/match ▲Shots16/1713.1 shots/match
4.69 shots/matchShots on target16/174.53 shots/match
54.3% ●Possession16/1749.4%
4.44 corners/matchCorners16/17● 6.18 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards3/41.75 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls16/1714.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples16 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 25 May 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFlamengoPalmeiras
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headFlamengo — Palmeiras
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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