PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Cruzeiro 2–0 Grêmio · Serie A

2–0Full-time analysis

Grêmio

WLLDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Cruzeiro won 2–0.

Shots
189
Shots on target
61
Expected goals
1.850.48
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cruzeiro beat Gremio 2–0. Recorded in this match (Cruzeiro – Gremio): shots 18–9, shots on target 6–1, expected goals 1.85–0.48, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Gremio's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Gremio's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Gremio have a visible away split

moderate

Gremio's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots9 shotsCruzeiro 18 shots, Grêmio 9 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots1 shotCruzeiro 6 shots, Grêmio 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.85 xG0.48 xGCruzeiro 1.85 xG, Grêmio 0.48 xG
  • Possession41%59%Cruzeiro 41%, Grêmio 59%
  • Corners4 corners1 cornerCruzeiro 4 corners, Grêmio 1 corner
  • Fouls16 fouls13 foulsCruzeiro 16 fouls, Grêmio 13 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Cruzeiro
1Draws
1Grêmio
Grêmio — Cruzeiro · Serie A0–1
Cruzeiro — Grêmio · Serie A4–1
Cruzeiro — Grêmio · Serie A1–1
Grêmio — Cruzeiro · Serie A0–2
Grêmio — Cruzeiro · Serie A3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cruzeiro favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Grêmio in 1 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cruzeiro12 matchesGrêmio12 matches
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored12/121.17 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲ 1.33 goals/match
1.44 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/80.72 xG/match
13.8 shots/match ▲Shots12/1211.8 shots/match
4.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target12/123.83 shots/match
54.5% ●Possession12/1251.3%
5.25 corners/match ●Corners12/123.92 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards4/42.5 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 20 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCruzeiroGrêmio
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headCruzeiro — Grêmio
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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