PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Cruzeiro 2–1 Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Cruzeiro won 2–1.

Shots
1616
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
2.030.53
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cruzeiro beat RB Bragantino 2–1. Recorded in this match (Cruzeiro – RB Bragantino): shots 16–16, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 2.03–0.53, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

RB Bragantino's recent record differs from the season

weak

RB Bragantino's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goal/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots16 shotsCruzeiro 16 shots, Red Bull Bragantino 16 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shotsCruzeiro 7 shots, Red Bull Bragantino 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.03 xG0.53 xGCruzeiro 2.03 xG, Red Bull Bragantino 0.53 xG
  • Possession49%51%Cruzeiro 49%, Red Bull Bragantino 51%
  • Corners2 corners7 cornersCruzeiro 2 corners, Red Bull Bragantino 7 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls21 foulsCruzeiro 16 fouls, Red Bull Bragantino 21 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Cruzeiro
2Draws
1Red Bull Bragantino
Cruzeiro — Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A2–1
Red Bull Bragantino — Cruzeiro · Serie A1–0
Red Bull Bragantino — Cruzeiro · Serie A1–1
Cruzeiro — Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A2–1
Cruzeiro — Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cruzeiro favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Red Bull Bragantino in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cruzeiro11 matchesRed Bull Bragantino11 matches
1.27 goals/match ▲Goals scored11/111 goal/match
1.91 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲ 1.09 goals/match
1.38 xG/matchExpected goals7/71.33 xG/match
13.5 shots/matchShots11/11▲ 16.2 shots/match
4.55 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲ 5.18 shots/match
55.7% ●Possession11/1151.3%
5.36 corners/matchCorners11/11● 6 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards4/45.25 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls11/1116.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 13 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCruzeiroRed Bull Bragantino
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headCruzeiro — Red Bull Bragantino
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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