PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Coritiba 0–1 São Paulo · Serie A

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

São Paulo won 0–1.

Shots
189
Shots on target
25
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Sao Paulo beat Coritiba 1–0. Recorded in this match (Coritiba – Sao Paulo): shots 18–9, shots on target 2–5, possession 42%–58%, corners 3–7. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Sao Paulo show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Sao Paulo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match ▲ShotsCoritiba · Sao Paulo11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCoritibaSao PauloBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match11.5 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against19.3 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Sao Paulo have recorded the higher season possession share.

38%PossessionCoritiba · Sao Paulo● 51.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCoritibaSao PauloBaseline
Possession38%51.5%50.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots9 shotsCoritiba 18 shots, São Paulo 9 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots5 shotsCoritiba 2 shots, São Paulo 5 shots
  • Possession42%58%Coritiba 42%, São Paulo 58%
  • Corners3 corners7 cornersCoritiba 3 corners, São Paulo 7 corners
  • Fouls5 fouls19 foulsCoritiba 5 fouls, São Paulo 19 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards3 cardsCoritiba 4 cards, São Paulo 3 cards
  • Passes344 passes493 passesCoritiba 344 passes, São Paulo 493 passes
  • Pass accuracy83%86%Coritiba 83%, São Paulo 86%
  • Shots inside box9 shots7 shotsCoritiba 9 shots, São Paulo 7 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks1 blockCoritiba 3 blocks, São Paulo 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves2 savesCoritiba 5 saves, São Paulo 2 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides0 offsidesCoritiba 0 offsides, São Paulo 0 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Coritiba
2Draws
2São Paulo
São Paulo — Coritiba · Serie A2–1
Coritiba — São Paulo · Serie A1–1
São Paulo — Coritiba · Serie A3–1
Coritiba — São Paulo · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Coritiba favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · São Paulo in 0 · 11 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Coritiba4 matchesSão Paulo4 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲ 1.5 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲ 0.5 goals/match
12.3 shots/match ▲Shots4/411.5 shots/match
2.75 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲ 4 shots/match
38%Possession4/4● 51.5%
2.75 corners/matchCorners4/4● 4 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match
9.75 fouls/matchFouls4/416.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 26 Feb 2026, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsCoritibaSão Paulo
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headCoritiba — São Paulo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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