PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Rostec Arena

Baltika Kaliningrad 1–2 Dynamo Moscow · Premier League

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Dynamo Moscow won 1–2.

Shots
188
Shots on target
64
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Dynamo beat Baltika 2–1. Recorded in this match (Baltika – Dynamo): shots 18–8, shots on target 6–4, possession 48%–52%, corners 5–2. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Baltika's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Baltika's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.27 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Dynamo have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.5%PossessionBaltika · Dynamo● 54.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBaltikaDynamoBaseline
Possession46.5%54.5%46.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots8 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 18 shots, Dynamo Moscow 8 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 6 shots, Dynamo Moscow 4 shots
  • Possession48%52%Baltika Kaliningrad 48%, Dynamo Moscow 52%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersBaltika Kaliningrad 5 corners, Dynamo Moscow 2 corners
  • Fouls24 fouls8 foulsBaltika Kaliningrad 24 fouls, Dynamo Moscow 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards3 cardsBaltika Kaliningrad 4 cards, Dynamo Moscow 3 cards
  • Passes318 passes362 passesBaltika Kaliningrad 318 passes, Dynamo Moscow 362 passes
  • Pass accuracy66%69%Baltika Kaliningrad 66%, Dynamo Moscow 69%
  • Shots inside box9 shots4 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 9 shots, Dynamo Moscow 4 shots
  • Blocked shots9 blocks3 blocksBaltika Kaliningrad 9 blocks, Dynamo Moscow 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves5 savesBaltika Kaliningrad 2 saves, Dynamo Moscow 5 saves
  • Offsides5 offsides0 offsidesBaltika Kaliningrad 5 offsides, Dynamo Moscow 0 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Baltika Kaliningrad
1Draws
2Dynamo Moscow
Dynamo Moscow — Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League1–1
Baltika Kaliningrad — Dynamo Moscow · Premier League2–3
Dynamo Moscow — Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Baltika Kaliningrad favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Dynamo Moscow in 6 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Baltika Kaliningrad30 matchesDynamo Moscow30 matches
1.27 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲ 1.7 goals/match
0.7 goals/match ▲Goals allowed30/301.33 goals/match
12.5 shots/matchShots30/30▲ 15.1 shots/match
4.07 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲ 4.73 shots/match
46.5%Possession30/30● 54.5%
3.47 corners/matchCorners30/30● 5.33 corners/match
3.22 cards/matchCards23/222.09 cards/match
19.2 fouls/matchFouls30/3012.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsBaltika KaliningradDynamo Moscow
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2025/26
Head-to-headBaltika Kaliningrad — Dynamo Moscow
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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