PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Casa Pia 0–1 Tondela · Primeira Liga

0–1Historical match

Tondela

LDLLD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Tondela won 0–1.

Shots
49
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
0.451.18
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Tondela beat Casa Pia 1–0. Recorded in this match (Casa Pia – Tondela): shots 4–9, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 0.45–1.18, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Casa Pia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Casa Pia's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Tondela.

5.8 days ▲Rest daysCasa Pia · Tondela3.8 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricCasa PiaTondelaBaseline
Rest days5.8 days3.8 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Casa Pia show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Casa Pia's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

8.47 shots/match ▲ShotsCasa Pia · Tondela10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCasa PiaTondelaBaseline
Shots8.47 shots/match10.5 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against13.8 shots/match13.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots4 shots9 shotsCasa Pia 4 shots, Tondela 9 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsCasa Pia 3 shots, Tondela 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.45 xG1.18 xGCasa Pia 0.45 xG, Tondela 1.18 xG
  • Possession48%52%Casa Pia 48%, Tondela 52%
  • Corners7 corners2 cornersCasa Pia 7 corners, Tondela 2 corners
  • Fouls22 fouls19 foulsCasa Pia 22 fouls, Tondela 19 fouls
  • Yellow cards8 cards3 cardsCasa Pia 8 cards, Tondela 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Rony Lopes · Tondela · 84′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJérémy Livolant · Casa Pia · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMakan Aïko · Tondela · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetHugo Félix · Tondela · 48′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTiago Manso · Tondela · 56′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDavid Sousa · Casa Pia · 9′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJérémy Livolant · Casa Pia · 83′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMaranhão · Tondela · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHugo Félix · Tondela · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHugo Félix · Tondela · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMakan Aïko · Tondela · 89′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDailon Rocha Livramento · Casa Pia · 90′ · 0.33 xG · on targetBebeto · Tondela · 68′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Casa Pia: 4 shots, 3 on target, 0.43 xG. Tondela: 9 shots, 5 on target, 1.21 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Bebeto · Tondela · 68′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Casa Pia 0.43 xG · Tondela 1.21 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Casa Pia
0Draws
0Tondela
Tondela — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga1–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Casa Pia favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Tondela in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Casa Pia34 matchesTondela34 matches
1 goal/match ▲Goals scored34/340.76 goals/match
1.74 goals/matchGoals allowed34/34▲ 1.59 goals/match
0.89 xG/matchExpected goals32/33▲ 1.09 xG/match
8.47 shots/matchShots34/34▲ 10.5 shots/match
2.85 shots/matchShots on target34/34▲ 3.41 shots/match
41.8%Possession34/34● 44.1%
3.76 corners/matchCorners34/34● 4.06 corners/match
3.38 cards/matchCards26/252.92 cards/match
16.1 fouls/matchFouls34/3414.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 May 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCasa PiaTondela
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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