PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio Municipal de Arouca

FC Arouca 3–2 Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga

3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Arouca won 3–2.

Shots
1212
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
1.981.12
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arouca beat Estoril 3–2. Recorded in this match (Arouca – Estoril): shots 12–12, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 1.98–1.12, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Estoril's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Estoril's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.77 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.77 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots12 shotsFC Arouca 12 shots, Estoril Praia 12 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsFC Arouca 4 shots, Estoril Praia 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.98 xG1.12 xGFC Arouca 1.98 xG, Estoril Praia 1.12 xG
  • Possession46%54%FC Arouca 46%, Estoril Praia 54%
  • Corners3 corners3 cornersFC Arouca 3 corners, Estoril Praia 3 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls18 foulsFC Arouca 13 fouls, Estoril Praia 18 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsFC Arouca 2 cards, Estoril Praia 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ricard Sánchez · Estoril · 8′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTaichi Fukui · Arouca · 48′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMiguel Puche · Arouca · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedXeka · Estoril · 3′ · 0.03 xG · goalPablo Gozálbez · Arouca · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoão Carvalho · Estoril · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndré Lacximicant · Estoril · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHyun-ju Lee · Arouca · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndré Lacximicant · Estoril · 37′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRicard Sánchez · Estoril · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYanis Begraoui · Estoril · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIvan Barbero · Arouca · 40′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMiguel Puche · Arouca · 84′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPablo Gozálbez · Arouca · 55′ · 0.10 xG · goalTiago Esgaio · Arouca · 60′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedYanis Begraoui · Estoril · 73′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedYanis Begraoui · Estoril · 84′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedIvan Barbero · Arouca · 20′ · 0.11 xG · on targetYanis Begraoui · Estoril · 32′ · 0.12 xG · goalJandro Orellana · Estoril · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedIvan Barbero · Arouca · 13′ · 0.14 xG · goalPedro Carvalho · Estoril · 87′ · 0.49 xG · off target or blockedJose Fontán · Arouca · 45′ · 0.56 xG · goalIvan Barbero · Arouca · 12′ · 0.70 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arouca: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.97 xG. Estoril: 12 shots, 3 on target, 1.15 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ivan Barbero · Arouca · 13′Jose Fontán · Arouca · 45′Pablo Gozálbez · Arouca · 55′Xeka · Estoril · 3′Yanis Begraoui · Estoril · 32′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arouca 1.97 xG · Estoril 1.15 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3FC Arouca
0Draws
2Estoril Praia
Estoril Praia — FC Arouca · Primeira Liga4–3
FC Arouca — Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga1–0
Estoril Praia — FC Arouca · Primeira Liga4–1
Estoril Praia — FC Arouca · Primeira Liga1–2
FC Arouca — Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga4–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Arouca favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Estoril Praia in 7 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Arouca30 matchesEstoril Praia30 matches
1.37 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲ 1.77 goals/match
1.93 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲ 1.7 goals/match
0.98 xG/matchExpected goals28/28▲ 1.33 xG/match
10.6 shots/matchShots30/30▲ 12.2 shots/match
3.53 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲ 4.2 shots/match
50.4%Possession30/30● 53%
3.63 corners/matchCorners30/30● 4.6 corners/match
3.12 cards/matchCards26/252.6 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls30/3012.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 6 Apr 2026, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC AroucaEstoril Praia
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headFC Arouca — Estoril Praia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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