PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio Municipal de Braga

Sporting Braga 1–0 FC Arouca · Primeira Liga

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Sporting Braga won 1–0.

Shots
69
Shots on target
21
Expected goals
0.891.11
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

SC Braga beat Arouca 1–0. Recorded in this match (SC Braga – Arouca): shots 6–9, shots on target 2–1, expected goals 0.89–1.11, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

SC Braga's recent record differs from the season

moderate

SC Braga's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.03 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.03 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arouca show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Arouca's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.6 shots/match ▲ShotsSC Braga · Arouca10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSC BragaAroucaBaseline
Shots12.6 shots/match10.5 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against9.17 shots/match13.4 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

SC Braga have recorded the higher season possession share.

63.6% ●PossessionSC Braga · Arouca50%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSC BragaAroucaBaseline
Possession63.6%50%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots9 shotsSporting Braga 6 shots, FC Arouca 9 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots1 shotSporting Braga 2 shots, FC Arouca 1 shot
  • Expected goals0.89 xG1.11 xGSporting Braga 0.89 xG, FC Arouca 1.11 xG
  • Possession62%38%Sporting Braga 62%, FC Arouca 38%
  • Corners6 corners5 cornersSporting Braga 6 corners, FC Arouca 5 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls12 foulsSporting Braga 9 fouls, FC Arouca 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardSporting Braga 2 cards, FC Arouca 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Alfonso Trezza · Arouca · 84′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFally Mayulu · Arouca · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNaïs Djouahra · Arouca · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoão Moutinho · SC Braga · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Horta · SC Braga · 59′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTiago Esgaio · Arouca · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlfonso Trezza · Arouca · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlfonso Trezza · Arouca · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJavi Sánchez · Arouca · 69′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMario Dorgeles · SC Braga · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Horta · SC Braga · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMario Dorgeles · SC Braga · 47′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedIvan Barbero · Arouca · 61′ · 0.18 xG · on targetPau Víctor · SC Braga · 66′ · 0.66 xG · goalIvan Barbero · Arouca · 83′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SC Braga: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.87 xG. Arouca: 9 shots, 1 on target, 1.13 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Pau Víctor · SC Braga · 66′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SC Braga 0.87 xG · Arouca 1.13 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Sporting Braga
0Draws
1FC Arouca
FC Arouca — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga0–4
Sporting Braga — FC Arouca · Primeira Liga2–1
FC Arouca — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga1–2
Sporting Braga — FC Arouca · Primeira Liga0–3
FC Arouca — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Sporting Braga favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · FC Arouca in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Sporting Braga30 matchesFC Arouca31 matches
2.03 goals/match ▲Goals scored30/311.32 goals/match
0.97 goals/match ▲Goals allowed30/311.9 goals/match
1.86 xG/match ▲Expected goals28/290.98 xG/match
12.6 shots/match ▲Shots30/3110.5 shots/match
5.2 shots/match ▲Shots on target30/313.45 shots/match
63.6% ●Possession30/3150%
5.67 corners/match ●Corners30/313.68 corners/match
2.15 cards/matchCards26/273.04 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls30/3113.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSporting BragaFC Arouca
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headSporting Braga — FC Arouca
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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