PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio Municipal de Braga

Sporting Braga 3–2 Vitória SC · Primeira Liga

3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Sporting Braga won 3–2.

Shots
79
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
2.481.27
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

SC Braga beat Guimaraes 3–2. Recorded in this match (SC Braga – Guimaraes): shots 7–9, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 2.48–1.27, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Guimaraes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Guimaraes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.29 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

SC Braga have recorded the higher season possession share.

63.8% ●PossessionSC Braga · Guimaraes49.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSC BragaGuimaraesBaseline
Possession63.8%49.3%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Guimaraes show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Guimaraes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13 shots/match ▲ShotsSC Braga · Guimaraes13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSC BragaGuimaraesBaseline
Shots13 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against8.56 shots/match11.7 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots9 shotsSporting Braga 7 shots, Vitória SC 9 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shotsSporting Braga 7 shots, Vitória SC 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.48 xG1.27 xGSporting Braga 2.48 xG, Vitória SC 1.27 xG
  • Possession46%54%Sporting Braga 46%, Vitória SC 54%
  • Corners0 corners2 cornersSporting Braga 0 corners, Vitória SC 2 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls10 foulsSporting Braga 17 fouls, Vitória SC 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsSporting Braga 2 cards, Vitória SC 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Noah Saviolo · Guimaraes · 12′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTony Strata · Guimaraes · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedThiago Balieiro · Guimaraes · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTony Strata · Guimaraes · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGustavo Silva · Guimaraes · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Horta · SC Braga · 75′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRicardo Horta · SC Braga · 45′ · 0.08 xG · on targetTelmo Arcanjo · Guimaraes · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetDiogo Sousa · Guimaraes · 1′ · 0.09 xG · on targetFran Navarro · SC Braga · 70′ · 0.12 xG · on targetAdrian Leon Barišić · Guimaraes · 19′ · 0.14 xG · goalRodrigo Zalazar · SC Braga · 45′ · 0.16 xG · on targetOumar Camara · Guimaraes · 85′ · 0.40 xG · on targetRicardo Horta · SC Braga · 32′ · 0.56 xG · goalGustavo Silva · Guimaraes · 54′ · 0.62 xG · goalRodrigo Zalazar · SC Braga · 57′ · 0.72 xG · goalRodrigo Zalazar · SC Braga · 17′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SC Braga: 7 shots, 7 on target, 2.51 xG. Guimaraes: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.41 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Rodrigo Zalazar · SC Braga · 17′Ricardo Horta · SC Braga · 32′Rodrigo Zalazar · SC Braga · 57′Adrian Leon Barišić · Guimaraes · 19′Gustavo Silva · Guimaraes · 54′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SC Braga 2.51 xG · Guimaraes 1.41 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Sporting Braga
3Draws
1Vitória SC
Vitória SC — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga1–1
Vitória SC — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga0–0
Sporting Braga — Vitória SC · Primeira Liga0–2
Vitória SC — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga2–3
Sporting Braga — Vitória SC · Primeira Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Sporting Braga favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Vitória SC in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Sporting Braga25 matchesVitória SC24 matches
2.16 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/241.29 goals/match
0.96 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/241.42 goals/match
1.95 xG/match ▲Expected goals23/231.2 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots25/2413.3 shots/match
5.4 shots/match ▲Shots on target25/243.75 shots/match
63.8% ●Possession25/2449.3%
5.6 corners/match ●Corners25/244.63 corners/match
2.04 cards/matchCards23/232.65 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls25/2414.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSporting BragaVitória SC
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headSporting Braga — Vitória SC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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