PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio Municipal de Arouca

FC Arouca 3–0 CD Nacional · Primeira Liga

3–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Arouca won 3–0.

Shots
1015
Shots on target
75
Expected goals
1.920.99
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arouca beat Nacional 3–0. Recorded in this match (Arouca – Nacional): shots 10–15, shots on target 7–5, expected goals 1.92–0.99, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Arouca's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arouca's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.4 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.4 goals/match1.26 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots15 shotsFC Arouca 10 shots, CD Nacional 15 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots5 shotsFC Arouca 7 shots, CD Nacional 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.92 xG0.99 xGFC Arouca 1.92 xG, CD Nacional 0.99 xG
  • Possession61%39%FC Arouca 61%, CD Nacional 39%
  • Corners4 corners1 cornerFC Arouca 4 corners, CD Nacional 1 corner
  • Fouls13 fouls13 foulsFC Arouca 13 fouls, CD Nacional 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards3 cardsFC Arouca 5 cards, CD Nacional 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Hyun-ju Lee · Arouca · 9′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPaulinho Bóia · Nacional · 38′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLéo Santos · Nacional · 79′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLéo Santos · Nacional · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedWiti · Nacional · 81′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDaniel Júnior · Nacional · 88′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAlfonso Trezza · Arouca · 47′ · 0.03 xG · goalPaulinho Bóia · Nacional · 55′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlfonso Trezza · Arouca · 9′ · 0.05 xG · on targetHyun-ju Lee · Arouca · 76′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 34′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 40′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPaulinho Bóia · Nacional · 63′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 35′ · 0.07 xG · on targetJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 58′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 3′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedIvan Barbero · Arouca · 49′ · 0.10 xG · on targetZe Vitor · Nacional · 55′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 8′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedIvan Barbero · Arouca · 24′ · 0.16 xG · on targetGabriel Veron · Nacional · 50′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedPablo Gozálbez · Arouca · 67′ · 0.27 xG · on targetBas Kuipers · Arouca · 42′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedHyun-ju Lee · Arouca · 67′ · 0.43 xG · goalDylan Nandín · Arouca · 72′ · 0.54 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arouca: 10 shots, 7 on target, 1.99 xG. Nacional: 15 shots, 5 on target, 0.98 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Alfonso Trezza · Arouca · 47′Hyun-ju Lee · Arouca · 67′Dylan Nandín · Arouca · 72′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arouca 1.99 xG · Nacional 0.98 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3FC Arouca
0Draws
0CD Nacional
CD Nacional — FC Arouca · Primeira Liga1–2
CD Nacional — FC Arouca · Primeira Liga1–2
FC Arouca — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Arouca favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · CD Nacional in 4 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Arouca25 matchesCD Nacional24 matches
1.4 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/241.21 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed25/24▲ 1.5 goals/match
0.88 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲ 1.26 xG/match
10.5 shots/matchShots25/24▲ 12.3 shots/match
3.56 shots/matchShots on target25/24▲ 4.04 shots/match
51.6% ●Possession25/2445.8%
3.8 corners/matchCorners25/24● 4.04 corners/match
3.13 cards/matchCards23/233.13 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls25/2414.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC AroucaCD Nacional
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headFC Arouca — CD Nacional
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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