PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio da Madeira

CD Nacional 0–1 FC Porto · Primeira Liga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Porto won 0–1.

Shots
98
Shots on target
25
Expected goals
0.650.45
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Porto beat Nacional 1–0. Recorded in this match (Nacional – FC Porto): shots 9–8, shots on target 2–5, expected goals 0.65–0.45, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Porto's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Porto's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.96 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.96 goals/match1.26 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Porto show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

FC Porto's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.2 shots/match ▲ShotsNacional · FC Porto14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNacionalFC PortoBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match14 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against14.8 shots/match9.78 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

FC Porto have recorded the higher season possession share.

46%PossessionNacional · FC Porto● 56.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNacionalFC PortoBaseline
Possession46%56.8%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots8 shotsCD Nacional 9 shots, FC Porto 8 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots5 shotsCD Nacional 2 shots, FC Porto 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.65 xG0.45 xGCD Nacional 0.65 xG, FC Porto 0.45 xG
  • Possession47%53%CD Nacional 47%, FC Porto 53%
  • Corners5 corners8 cornersCD Nacional 5 corners, FC Porto 8 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls11 foulsCD Nacional 13 fouls, FC Porto 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards0 cardsCD Nacional 4 cards, FC Porto 0 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Pepê · FC Porto · 17′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedWiti · Nacional · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Gül · FC Porto · 13′ · 0.02 xG · on targetZe Vitor · Nacional · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPaulinho Bóia · Nacional · 56′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDaniel Júnior · Nacional · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlan Varela · FC Porto · 3′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOskar Pietuszewski · FC Porto · 11′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMiguel Baeza · Nacional · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWiti · Nacional · 24′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPepê · FC Porto · 46′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedZe Vitor · Nacional · 89′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedThiago Silva · FC Porto · 18′ · 0.10 xG · on targetRodrigo Mora · FC Porto · 46′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJan Bednarek · FC Porto · 60′ · 0.10 xG · goalJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 73′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 33′ · 0.29 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nacional: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.67 xG. FC Porto: 8 shots, 5 on target, 0.45 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Jan Bednarek · FC Porto · 60′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nacional 0.67 xG · FC Porto 0.45 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1CD Nacional
0Draws
2FC Porto
FC Porto — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga1–0
FC Porto — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga3–0
CD Nacional — FC Porto · Primeira Liga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CD Nacional favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Porto in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CD Nacional23 matchesFC Porto23 matches
1.26 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲ 1.96 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲ 0.3 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals22/22▲ 1.75 xG/match
12.2 shots/matchShots23/23▲ 14 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲ 5.26 shots/match
46%Possession23/23● 56.8%
4.17 corners/matchCorners23/23● 5.52 corners/match
3.09 cards/matchCards22/222.32 cards/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls23/2313.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCD NacionalFC Porto
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headCD Nacional — FC Porto
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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