Primeira Liga · 2025Sun, 15 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

AVS - Futebol SAD

LLDLL

3–0Full-time recap

Estoril Praia

LWWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	AVS - Futebol SAD	Estoril Praia
Shots	15 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.02 xG/match	1.08 xG/match▲
Possession	29%	71%●
Corners	9 corners/match	9 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

AVS - Futebol SAD: 15 shots, 3 on target, 1.01 xG. Estoril Praia: 12 shots, 2 on target, 1.11 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: AVS - Futebol SAD 1.01 xG · Estoril Praia 1.11 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AVS - Futebol SAD's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Estoril Praia have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

AVS - Futebol SAD's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AVS - Futebol SAD's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.82 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	0.82 goals/match	1.26 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Estoril Praia have recorded the higher season possession share.

41.1%PossessionAVS - Futebol SAD · Estoril Praia●53.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.1 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	AVS - Futebol SAD	Estoril Praia	Baseline
Possession	41.1%	53.3%	49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0AVS - Futebol SAD

1Draws

2Estoril Praia

13 Sept 2025Estoril Praia — AVS - Futebol SAD · Primeira Liga3–1

4 Apr 2025AVS - Futebol SAD — Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga0–3

9 Nov 2024Estoril Praia — AVS - Futebol SAD · Primeira Liga0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

AVS - Futebol SAD favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Estoril Praia in 11 · 2 too close

0.82 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 22/24▲1.92 goals/match

2.45 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/24▲1.75 goals/match

0.94 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 22/22▲1.38 xG/match

1.8 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 22/22▲1.56 xG/match

11 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/24▲12.6 shots/match

14.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/24▲12 shots/match

3.09 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 22/24▲4.42 shots/match

5.32 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/24▲4.25 shots/match

41.1%Possessionseason · 22/24●53.3%

3.64 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/24●4.75 corners/match

5.41 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/24▲4.92 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/222.73 cards/match

13.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2412.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

5%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/24▲13%

50%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/24▲71%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AVS - Futebol SAD5.3

Estoril Praia76.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AVS - Futebol SAD21

Estoril Praia71.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AVS - Futebol SAD14.1

Estoril Praia48.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AVS - Futebol SAD73.7

Estoril Praia39.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AVS - Futebol SAD47.4

Estoril Praia28.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AVS - Futebol SAD21.1

Estoril Praia65.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AVS - Futebol SAD30.3

Estoril Praia54

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

AVS - Futebol SAD22 matchesEstoril Praia24 matches

0.82 goals/matchGoals scored22/24▲1.92 goals/match

2.45 goals/matchGoals allowed22/24▲1.75 goals/match

0.94 xG/matchExpected goals22/22▲1.38 xG/match

11 shots/matchShots22/24▲12.6 shots/match

3.09 shots/matchShots on target22/24▲4.42 shots/match

41.1%Possession22/24●53.3%

3.64 corners/matchCorners22/24●4.75 corners/match

—Cards0/222.73 cards/match

13.8 fouls/matchFouls22/2412.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

AVS - Futebol SAD12 matchesEstoril Praia12 matches

0.83 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.67 goals/match

1.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/122.08 goals/match

0.92 xG/matchExpected goals12/11▲1.41 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShots12/12▲12.4 shots/match

3.58 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲4 shots/match

40.9%Possession12/12●53.7%

3.33 corners/matchCorners12/12●5.17 corners/match

—Cards0/112.27 cards/match

14.3 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.97 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples22 / 24home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Feb 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4