PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio José Gomes

CF Estrela Amadora 1–0 Santa Clara · Primeira Liga

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

CF Estrela Amadora won 1–0.

Shots
1217
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
0.941.32
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Estrela beat Santa Clara 1–0. Recorded in this match (Estrela – Santa Clara): shots 12–17, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 0.94–1.32, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Estrela's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Estrela's last-five shots average is below their season average.

7.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots7.4 shots/match10.6 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Estrela have a visible home split

strong

Estrela's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match10.6 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Estrela show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Estrela's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.6 shots/match ▲ShotsEstrela · Santa Clara12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricEstrelaSanta ClaraBaseline
Shots10.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against13.2 shots/match9.18 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots17 shotsCF Estrela Amadora 12 shots, Santa Clara 17 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsCF Estrela Amadora 4 shots, Santa Clara 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.94 xG1.32 xGCF Estrela Amadora 0.94 xG, Santa Clara 1.32 xG
  • Possession45%55%CF Estrela Amadora 45%, Santa Clara 55%
  • Corners3 corners6 cornersCF Estrela Amadora 3 corners, Santa Clara 6 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls9 foulsCF Estrela Amadora 15 fouls, Santa Clara 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards1 cardCF Estrela Amadora 4 cards, Santa Clara 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ianis Stoica · Estrela · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetRobinho · Estrela · 4′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGustavo Klismahn · Santa Clara · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBernardo Schappo · Estrela · 58′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBrenner · Santa Clara · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedWelinton Torrao · Santa Clara · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Paciência · Santa Clara · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRobinho · Estrela · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAbraham Marcus · Estrela · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRobinho · Estrela · 43′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAbraham Marcus · Estrela · 49′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Paciência · Santa Clara · 68′ · 0.04 xG · on targetIanis Stoica · Estrela · 71′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBrenner · Santa Clara · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLucas Soares · Santa Clara · 64′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Lopes · Santa Clara · 13′ · 0.06 xG · on targetGabriel Silva · Santa Clara · 44′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedWendel · Santa Clara · 49′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJovane Cabral · Estrela · 35′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Paciência · Santa Clara · 81′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFrederico Venâncio · Santa Clara · 82′ · 0.08 xG · on targetVinícius Lopes · Santa Clara · 57′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJovane Cabral · Estrela · 59′ · 0.13 xG · goalGonçalo Paciência · Santa Clara · 89′ · 0.14 xG · on targetGabriel Silva · Santa Clara · 12′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedWelinton Torrao · Santa Clara · 90′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Silva · Santa Clara · 1′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedJovane Cabral · Estrela · 11′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedIanis Stoica · Estrela · 90′ · 0.29 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Estrela: 12 shots, 4 on target, 0.98 xG. Santa Clara: 17 shots, 5 on target, 1.34 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Jovane Cabral · Estrela · 59′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Estrela 0.98 xG · Santa Clara 1.34 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0CF Estrela Amadora
2Draws
1Santa Clara
Santa Clara — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga0–0
CF Estrela Amadora — Santa Clara · Primeira Liga0–0
Santa Clara — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CF Estrela Amadora favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Santa Clara in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CF Estrela Amadora22 matchesSanta Clara22 matches
1.27 goals/match ▲Goals scored22/220.82 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲ 1.18 goals/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goals21/211.15 xG/match
10.6 shots/matchShots22/22▲ 12.6 shots/match
3.59 shots/matchShots on target22/223.55 shots/match
47.3%Possession22/22● 48.6%
3.27 corners/matchCorners22/22● 4.91 corners/match
2.86 cards/matchCards21/213.29 cards/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls22/2214.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCF Estrela AmadoraSanta Clara
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headCF Estrela Amadora — Santa Clara
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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