PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Estoril Praia 2–2 Tondela · Primeira Liga

2–2Historical match

Tondela

WLLLD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Estoril Praia and Tondela drew 2–2.

Shots
156
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
0.711.35
Possession
68%32%

Full time

What the match recorded

Estoril and Tondela drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Estoril – Tondela): shots 15–6, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 0.71–1.35, possession 68%–32%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Estoril's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Estoril's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.09 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.2 goals/match2.09 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Estoril have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.6% ●PossessionEstoril · Tondela41.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricEstorilTondelaBaseline
Possession51.6%41.2%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots6 shotsEstoril Praia 15 shots, Tondela 6 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsEstoril Praia 6 shots, Tondela 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.71 xG1.35 xGEstoril Praia 0.71 xG, Tondela 1.35 xG
  • Possession68%32%Estoril Praia 68%, Tondela 32%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersEstoril Praia 5 corners, Tondela 4 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls8 foulsEstoril Praia 8 fouls, Tondela 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card0 cardsEstoril Praia 1 card, Tondela 0 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

João Carvalho · Estoril · 15′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRicard Sánchez · Estoril · 15′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPedro Amaral · Estoril · 21′ · 0.01 xG · on targetRicard Sánchez · Estoril · 64′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRafik Guitane · Estoril · 32′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBrayan Medina · Tondela · 43′ · 0.02 xG · on targetYanis Begraoui · Estoril · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYaya Sithole · Tondela · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYanis Begraoui · Estoril · 86′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRafik Guitane · Estoril · 41′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRicard Sánchez · Estoril · 68′ · 0.03 xG · on targetYanis Begraoui · Estoril · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMaranhão · Tondela · 6′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJoão Carvalho · Estoril · 26′ · 0.05 xG · goalRodrigo Conceição · Tondela · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRafik Guitane · Estoril · 61′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAlejandro Marqués · Estoril · 5′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPeixinho · Estoril · 76′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedFerro · Estoril · 29′ · 0.18 xG · goalMaranhão · Tondela · 16′ · 0.27 xG · goalMaranhão · Tondela · 12′ · 0.92 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Estoril: 15 shots, 6 on target, 0.67 xG. Tondela: 6 shots, 5 on target, 1.32 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′João Carvalho · Estoril · 26′Ferro · Estoril · 29′Maranhão · Tondela · 12′Maranhão · Tondela · 16′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Estoril 0.67 xG · Tondela 1.32 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Estoril Praia
1Draws
0Tondela
Tondela — Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga2–2
Estoril Praia — Tondela · Primeira Liga1–0
Tondela — Estoril Praia · Primeira Liga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Estoril Praia favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Tondela in 0 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Estoril Praia22 matchesTondela22 matches
2.09 goals/match ▲Goals scored22/220.73 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed22/221.68 goals/match
1.39 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/211.13 xG/match
12.7 shots/match ▲Shots22/2210.3 shots/match
4.64 shots/match ▲Shots on target22/223.36 shots/match
51.6% ●Possession22/2241.2%
4.36 corners/match ●Corners22/223.59 corners/match
2.76 cards/matchCards21/212.76 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls22/2214.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsEstoril PraiaTondela
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headEstoril Praia — Tondela
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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