PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio João Cardoso

Tondela 0–1 Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga

Tondela

LLLWL
0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Sporting Braga won 0–1.

Shots
711
Shots on target
24
Expected goals
1.51.57
Possession
34%66%

Full time

What the match recorded

SC Braga beat Tondela 1–0. Recorded in this match (Tondela – SC Braga): shots 7–11, shots on target 2–4, expected goals 1.5–1.57, possession 34%–66%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Tondela's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Tondela's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.74 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.74 goals/match1.26 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

SC Braga have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.8%PossessionTondela · SC Braga● 64.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 22.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricTondelaSC BragaBaseline
Possession42.8%64.9%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Tondela show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Tondela's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.2 shots/match ▲ShotsTondela · SC Braga13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricTondelaSC BragaBaseline
Shots11.2 shots/match13.4 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against13.3 shots/match8.63 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots11 shotsTondela 7 shots, Sporting Braga 11 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots4 shotsTondela 2 shots, Sporting Braga 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.5 xG1.57 xGTondela 1.5 xG, Sporting Braga 1.57 xG
  • Possession34%66%Tondela 34%, Sporting Braga 66%
  • Corners1 corner5 cornersTondela 1 corner, Sporting Braga 5 corners
  • Fouls19 fouls14 foulsTondela 19 fouls, Sporting Braga 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards4 cardsTondela 2 cards, Sporting Braga 4 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Hugo Félix · Tondela · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Zalazar · SC Braga · 81′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMakan Aïko · Tondela · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMoudjatovic · Tondela · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoão Moutinho · SC Braga · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDiego Rodrigues · SC Braga · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoão Moutinho · SC Braga · 5′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Horta · SC Braga · 80′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMakan Aïko · Tondela · 69′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Horta · SC Braga · 71′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Zalazar · SC Braga · 10′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMakan Aïko · Tondela · 69′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPau Víctor · SC Braga · 41′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJoão Moutinho · SC Braga · 41′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPau Víctor · SC Braga · 11′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedJordan Siebatcheu · Tondela · 90′ · 0.48 xG · on targetHugo Félix · Tondela · 86′ · 0.82 xG · on targetRodrigo Zalazar · SC Braga · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Tondela: 7 shots, 2 on target, 1.50 xG. SC Braga: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.60 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Rodrigo Zalazar · SC Braga · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Tondela 1.50 xG · SC Braga 1.60 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Tondela
0Draws
3Sporting Braga
Sporting Braga — Tondela · Primeira Liga3–0
Tondela — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga0–1
Sporting Braga — Tondela · Primeira Liga3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Tondela favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Sporting Braga in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Tondela19 matchesSporting Braga19 matches
0.74 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲ 1.79 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲ 1.05 goals/match
1.22 xG/matchExpected goals18/18▲ 1.87 xG/match
11.2 shots/matchShots19/19▲ 13.4 shots/match
3.58 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲ 5.05 shots/match
42.8%Possession19/19● 64.9%
3.68 corners/matchCorners19/19● 5.79 corners/match
2.89 cards/matchCards18/182.22 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls19/1910.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTondelaSporting Braga
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headTondela — Sporting Braga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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